Photo by Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images. Pictured: Cristiano Ronaldo.
The third and final set of matchdays for Euro 2020’s group stage will begin on Sunday and determine the tournament’s structure for the following knockout rounds.
There are a host of different scenarios and circumstances that will dictate which countries play each other going forward.
These moving parts are made especially complicated by a stipulation introduced in the 2016 tournament that four of the six third place finishers will qualify for the Round of 16. (Previously, only the top two in each group qualified for the knockout stages.)
Here is the live knockout stage bracket as of Saturday night. It will be subject to plenty of change as Matchday 3 plays out through Wednesday, June 23:
The Action Network staff had myriad questions about how each subsequent game might affect the overall knockout bracket. This story will lay out what each team needs to advance, which external results a given country’s fans should be rooting for, betting odds for each remaining game, futures odds for each group (as available) and more.
A few notes first:
- Tiebreaker rules: Teams that have the same amount of points are separated by head-to-head record, then by goal difference, followed by goals scored. If the teams are still level by those three metrics, a penalty shootout may occur if the squads are already playing each other in the final group stage game. If not, the team with the fewer yellow and red cards will emerge on top.
- In 2016, both third-place teams that finished with four points advanced to the group stage. Also, both teams that finished in third place but with a negative goal difference did not qualify for the knockout rounds. Two of the four teams with three points advanced to the Round of 16, each with an even goal differential.
- All betting odds listed are according to DraftKings and are current as of Saturday night.
- The Round of 16 is scheduled to begin on Saturday, June 26.
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Group A
| Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Italy | 6 | +6 |
| Wales | 4 | +2 |
| Switzerland | 1 | -3 |
| Turkey | 0 | -5 |
Italy v. Wales Odds
Sunday, June 20, Noon ET
| Italy | -200 |
| Wales | +750 |
| Draw | +290 |
Italy need: A win or draw against Wales to finish first in Group A.
The Italians have already clinched a birth into the Round of 16 but have yet to solidify first place in their group. With a win or draw against Wales on Sunday, they’ll finish atop Group A and face off against the runners up in Group C, which will be either Ukraine, Austria or North Macedonia.
With a loss to Wales, they’d finish second in group and face off against the second-place team in Group B, which will likely be either Russia or Finland.
In some ways, finishing second in Group A would set Italy on an easier road map during the later stages in the tournament. Playing one of Russia or Finland then either the Netherlands or third-place finisher in Group D, E or F in the quarterfinals may present less of a challenge than their most likely alternative: A matchup with Belgium in the quarterfinals.
Regardless, Italy won’t be playing to lose on Sunday against Wales. It’s good to know, though, that either pathway ahead can be construed as favorable, no matter the result against Wales.
Entering Sunday’s match, Italy are a -1430 favorite to win Group A.
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Wales need: A win or draw against Belgium to automatically qualify for Round of 16. A loss won’t take them out of the running, though.
Wales will automatically qualify for the knockout stage with a win or draw against Italy. Even with a loss, the Welsh would still finish top two in their group unless Switzerland makes up a five-goal difference in their game against Turkey. (For instance, if Wales loses 3-0 and Switzerland wins 3-0, the Swiss would jump Wales and finish second in the group.)
There are some crazy scenarios that would see Wales and Switzerland be tied on goal difference, both with four points, and their seed would be determined by how many bookings each team has accrued in the tournament so far. For our intents and purposes, though, Wales is in the driver’s seat even if they succumb to the Italians. Even in the slight, slight likelihood that the Swiss usurp them, four points guaranteed entry into the Round of 16 in 2016 and this year looks to be no different.
Wales are a +700 underdog to win Group A and a -1667 favorite to finish in the top two.
Switzerland v. Turkey Odds
Sunday, June 20, Noon ET
| Switzerland | -155 |
| Turkey | +410 |
| Draw | +320 |
Switzerland need: A win against Turkey puts them in decent position to qualify as a third-place team.
Switzerland need a win or they’re out of Euro 2020. Even then, they’ll need to make up for their -3 goal difference, which could become a factor as the other groups finish up their matches.
As mentioned, both teams that finished with four points in 2016 made the knockout stages, but there is an unlikely scenario that could see the Swiss miss out because of their negative goal differential. Switzerland will be rooting for as many draws as possible from their third-place rivals.
Switzerland could still finish in second in this group but would have to overcome a five-goal difference against Wales.
Switzerland are +650 underdogs to finish in the top two.
Turkey need: A blowout win against the Swiss and deep prayers that the rest of the third-place finishers really screw up.
Turkey need to blowout Switzerland to make up for their -5 goal difference. Even then, with just three points and (very likely) a negative goal differential, it’s not likely they advance. Both teams that finished in third place with a negative goal difference in the last tournament did not qualify for the knockout rounds.
If you really want Turkey in the knockout stages, you’d be rooting for Croatia and Scotland to draw and Spain and Poland to lose. Those results, coupled with a Turkey victory, would send them through as a third-place qualifier.
Turkey do not have any odds on DraftKings to advance into the knockout stages.
Group B
| Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 6 | +4 |
| Russia | 3 | -2 |
| Finland | 3 | 0 |
| Denmark | 0 | -2 |
(Russia tops Finland in the current table by virtue of their 1-0 victory over the Finns on June 16.)
Belgium v. Finland Odds
Monday, June 21, 3 p.m. ET
| Belgium | -315 |
| Finland | +1000 |
| Draw | +410 |
Belgium needs: A win or draw against Finland to win Group B. A loss will still most likely leave them atop the table.
Belgium will qualify for the Round of 16 regardless of their result against Finland. The only way Belgium won’t top their group is if they lose and Russia drops points against Denmark. (If Russia win, Finland could also win by three goals or more to push Belgium to second, but that’s not likely to happen.) For reference, Belgium has -10,000 odds to win Group A at DraftKings.
The winner of Group B will face a third-place finisher from Group A, D, E or F, which is currently slated to be Portugal, but of course that is subject to change as the final matches play out.
Finland need: A win against Belgium to automatically qualify. A draw will probably still allow them to advance. A loss leaves them hard-pressed — but still with a viable path to qualification.
Finland would most likely finish in second with a victory against Belgium. A draw would put them in second only if Russia fall to Denmark. A loss would most likely leave them in third and at the whims of the other third-place finishers. If they lose and finish with three points, like Turkey, they’d be rooting for draws, draws, draws from the other third-place contenders.
Finland have +1500 odds to win the group and are +450 to finish in the top two.
Russia v. Denmark
Monday, June 21, 3 p.m. ET
| Russia | +390 |
| Denmark | -143 |
| Draw | +310 |
Russia needs: A win against Denmark to automatically qualify. A draw would leave them in second place barring a Finland victory against Belgium. A loss would eliminate them from the competition.
There’s no route for Russia to top the table, but a win will likely see them finish second in group with a date to face either Italy or Wales in the Round of 16. A draw would effectively count for automatic qualification, too, though a Finland victory would send them down to third with four points.
A loss would eradicate them from the tournament.
The roadmap is pretty straightforward for the Russians — pick up points on Monday against Denmark or go home.
Russia are +125 to finish in the top two in Group B.
Denmark needs: At least a two-goal victory against Russia and a Belgium win to finish second.
The above scenario is the simplest way Denmark can automatically qualify for the Round of 16. There are other scenarios where they win, finish third and advance, but they will still need to put up goals in order to make up for their -2 goal difference. Basically, they need to go full-out attack and outscore the Russians by at least two goals in order to stand a chance at qualifying for their first Euro knockouts since 2004.
Denmark are -106 to finish in the top two of their group.
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Group C
| Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Netherlands | 6 | +3 |
| Ukraine | 3 | 0 |
| Austria | 3 | 0 |
| North Macedonia | 0 | -3 |
(Ukraine leads Austria in the current table because they’ve scored one more goal in the tournament thus far.)
Netherlands v. North Macedonia Odds
Monday, June 21, Noon ET
| Netherlands | -315 |
| North Macedonia | +1050 |
| Draw | +425 |
Netherlands need: Nothing. They’ve won Group C already. They can literally rest all their starters against North Macedonia.
With an 85th minute goal against Ukraine to win 3-2 and a 2-0 drumming of Austria, the Dutch are on their way to face a third-place finisher from Group D, E or F. As of Saturday night, that team is Spain, but that will be subject to change as Matchday 3 plays out. Regardless, Frank de Boer can rest all his starters for Monday’s game.
North Macedonia needs: Moral support.
The worst team in the tournament needs moral support. They just do. Also, they’re already eliminated. Let’s hope they put up at least one goal against the Dutch B-team.
Ukraine v. Austria Odds
Monday, June 21, Noon ET
| Ukraine | +260 |
| Austria | +295 |
| Draw | -104 |
Ukraine needs: A win or draw against Austria and they automatically qualify. A loss might not be catastrophic, but it would depend on how much they lose by.
Ironically, if both Ukraine and Austria play for a draw, they’d both (very likely) qualify, with Ukraine finishing second and the Austrians as a (very likely) qualifying third-place finisher.
Austria needs: A win or draw against Ukraine.
A draw would place them in third with four points, which will probably be enough to move on. Like Ukraine, a loss wouldn’t necessarily be catastrophic, but they’d be rooting heavily against the other groups’ third-place contenders. In the event of a loss, Austrians should be rooting intently for Belgium to blowout Finland, Russia to beat or draw Denmark and Croatia and Scotland to draw.
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Group D
| Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Czech Republic | 4 | +2 |
| England | 4 | +1 |
| Croatia | 1 | -1 |
| Scotland | 1 | -2 |
Czech Republic v. England Odds
Tuesday, June 22, 3 p.m. ET
| Czech Republic | +700 |
| England | -155 |
| Draw | +225 |
Czech Republic needs: A win or draw to finish first place in Group D
A loss wouldn’t doom them either, though there is a world where Croatia puts up three goals in a win against Scotland, the Czechs lose to England, then drop to third place. Even then, the Czechs will probably still qualify with four points. And that’s the only world where Croatia finishes above the Czech Republic in Group D.
The Czech Republic are +130 underdogs to win the group and -590 favorites to finish in the top two.
England needs: A win or draw to automatically qualify for the knockout rounds.
Like the Czech Republic, England is probably into the Round of 16 even if they lose. The only way they’d drop to third is if Scotland beat Croatia and make up a three-goal differential with England.
An England victory would vault them atop the table. A draw would slot them into second.
If there’s any solace here it’s that finishing second in Group D would actually yield an easier Round of 16 matchup. The runner-ups of Group D play the runner-up from Group E — Sweden, Spain or Slovakia — while the winners of Group D will have to face one of France, Portugal or Germany.
But, even if, say, England play Sweden in the Round of 16 and win, they’d still likely have to face off against one of France, Portugal or Germany in the quarterfinals. So either road map will probably contain a dangerous member from Group F.
The English are -162 favorites to win Group D, but just bet the -155 against the Czech Republic if you feel that way — they’re effectively the same bet.
Croatia v. Scotland Odds
Tuesday, June 22, 3 p.m. ET
| Croatia | +120 |
| Scotland | +205 |
| Draw | +285 |
Croatia needs: A win against Scotland and they’re likely in as a third-place team.
If Croatia wins, makes up their two-goal difference on the Czech Republic and the Czechs lose to England, Croatia would finish in second and face off against Sweden, Slovakia or Spain in the Round of 16. Otherwise, a win would still put them in decent position to advance as a third-place finisher with four points.
A loss or draw to Scotland would effectively eliminate the 2018 World Cup finalists.
Croatia are +360 to finish top two in Group D.
Scotland needs: A win against Croatia and they’ll likely qualify for knockouts.
There’s a small chance Scotland wins and finishes in second, but it would require a blowout victory against Croatia and a substantial English loss. A Scots win that doesn’t make up the three-goal gulf between themselves and England would still put Scotland in pole position as a four-point third-place team.
A loss or draw would also effectively eliminate Scotland, so both teams will be playing to win on Tuesday. Expect a lot of men forward and plenty of counter-attacks.
Scotland are +2900 to finish second in the group under those aforementioned circumstances.
Group E
| Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 4 | +1 |
| Slovakia | 3 | 0 |
| Spain | 2 | 0 |
| Poland | 1 | -1 |
Spain vs. Slovakia Odds
Wednesday, June 23, Noon ET
| Spain | -435 |
| Slovakia | +1400 |
| Draw | +510 |
Spain needs: A win to automatically qualify. Other results would cause complications.
If Spain win, they will finish atop the table if Poland beat Sweden. If Sweden draws and Spain win, the Spaniards can still finish on top if they beat out the Swedes’ goal differential. The two teams are currently tied on GD.
If both Spain and Sweden win, Sweden would top the table and Spain would finish second, likely with a date set against the Czech Republic or England in the Round of 16.
A draw won’t be enough to definitively advance. The best they could do in that situation is finish in third and hope that Croatia and Scotland draw and Switzerland and Turkey draw, too. Otherwise, they’d be hoping that they net a high-scoring draw in order to increase their “goals scored” tiebreaker.
A loss would all but eliminate Spain from the tournament. They haven’t exited the Euros in the group stage since 2004. They were back-to-back champions in 2008 and 2012.
Spain are currently -122 favorites to win the group and -420 favorites to finish in the top two.
Slovakia needs: A win or draw would result in qualification.
Slovakia, which has only ever qualified for one European Championship, is in an appreciably better situation than three-time winners Spain are. A win or draw against the Spaniards would result in qualification, though there is a scenario where they would finish in third if they draw Spain, Poland wins, and Sweden beats them in goals scored. Third place with four points, as aforementioned, should be enough to get through, though. The roadmap for Slovakia is clear: nab points against Spain, and they’re in.
Slovakia is +1400 to win Group E, which would occur if they win and Sweden loses to or draws Poland. Slovakia is +135 to finish top two.
Sweden vs. Poland Odds
Wednesday, June 23, Noon ET
| Sweden | +185 |
| Poland | +160 |
| Draw | +230 |
Sweden needs: A win and they top Group E. A draw and they’d finish no lower than second. A loss would probably push them through, too, as a four point, third-place team.
Sweden is in the best situation out of any team in this group. A loss won’t destroy them — the worst they’d do is third, and with four points, it’s likely they’ll go through. There’s even a circumstance where they finish in second with a draw if Poland wins and Sweden outscores Slovakia.
A draw would result in first place unless Spain wins and beats out their goal difference. If Spain does outscore them, Sweden would finish second.
If Sweden win, they’d move on to face a third place finisher from Group A, B, C or D, which is currently slated to be Austria as of Saturday night.
Sweden is currently +155 to win their group and -200 to finish in the top two.
Poland needs: A win and they’re in. Any other result and they’re out of the tournament.
Simple as can be. Poland needs to win this game to stay alive. It’ll make for an interesting dynamic with one team 100% going for it out the gate and the other team trying not to lose.
Poland still has a route to top the table, and their odds for doing so are +2200. They would need to win and have Spain draw Slovakia in a low-scoring affair. Poland are +380 to finish in the top two, something that can only happen with a victory as well.
Group F
| Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|
| France | 4 | +1 |
| Germany | 3 | +1 |
| Portugal | 3 | +1 |
| Hungary | 1 | -3 |
(Germany tops Portugal in the current table by virtue of their 4-2 victory over the Portuguese on June 19.)
France v. Portugal Odds
Wednesday, June 23, 3 p.m. ET
| France | +120 |
| Portugal | +315 |
| Draw | +190 |
France needs: A win against Portugal would finish first place in the group and a meeting with a third-place finisher from Group A, B or C.
A draw would allow France to top their group, too, but that’s dependent on Germany dropping points against Hungary. A loss would force the French into second place and, in one worst-case scenario, third place, though even then they would likely still qualify for knockouts with four points.
France’s draw on Saturday against Hungary, a heavy underdog, means the French need to beat a tough Portugal side to solidify an easier Round of 16 opponent. Should they falter and finish second, they would have to play the Czech Republic or England in the first knockout stage.
France are currently even money to win Group F. The winner of Group F will face a third-place team from Group A, B or C, currently slated to be Finland.
Portugal needs: A win or draw against France to (likely) qualify for the Round of 16.
Portugal started off strong against Germany on Saturday and held onto a 1-0 lead before allowing four unanswered and drastically diminishing their chances to automatically qualify for the later stages of the tournament.
With a win, Portugal would top the group if Germany drops points against Hungary. If Germany win and Portugal win, Cristiano Ronaldo and company would finish second in the group.
A draw would slot Portugal second if Germany loses to Hungary. In the event of a Portugal draw and Germany win/draw, the Portuguese would finish in third with four points, but would still likely qualify.
Portugal are 17/1 to win the group, which is only possible by beating France while Germany draws or loses to Hungary.
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Germany v. Hungary Odds
Wednesday, June 23, 3 p.m. ET
| Germany | -500 |
| Hungary | +1300 |
| Draw | +600 |
Germany needs: A win, which will send them through no matter what.
Frankly, any result here other than a win would be a disgrace. While the Germans would still likely qualify with a draw, as -500 favorites — and with the stench of their utter failure at the 2018 World Cup still looming — a victory on Wednesday is imperative.
With a loss, Germany could still limp into the Round of 16 with three points as long as France beats Portugal, but they’d be at the whims of the other third-place teams.
The Germans are currently even money to win Group F, which would happen with a victory along with a France loss or draw.
Hungary needs: A win would send them through.
There is one scenario where if Hungary wins and France beats Portugal, the Hungarians would finish in second place. But, if Hungary beat Germany and the French drop points, the Hungarians would finish in third place, albeit likely with enough points to qualify for the knockout stages.
This story will be updated.