Franck Fife/AFP via Getty Images. Pictured: France stars Karim Benzema, left, and Kylian Mbappé.
Life in the toughest quartet at the 2020 European Championships begins Tuesday, with Hungary, Portugal, France and Germany hitting the pitch.
Dubbed the “Group of Death” by fans and pundits alike, this foursome features three of the world’s best countries. And it goes without saying this will be an extremely difficult group for any of the top teams to win heading into the knockout stage of this soccer showcase.
There are two games on the slate, with one of the featured matches from the entire opening stage taking place when tournament favorite France battles fellow powerhouse Germany in a Group F heavyweight bout. Hungary goes up against Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal in the group’s opener.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your Euro 2020 needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections during the tournament.
As for these latest tournament matches, handicappers BJ Cunningham, Jeremy Pond, Matthew Trebby and Anthony Dabbundo have delivered their best bets covering both contests on the card.
That said, let’s take a look at their favorite picks on the docket.
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Tuesday’s Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| BJ Cunningham | Hungary +1 (+115) | DraftKings |
| Jeremy Pond | Hungary vs. Portugal — Under 2.5 (-125) | BetMGM |
| Anthony Dabbundo | France — Draw No Bet (-120) | DraftKings |
| Matthew Trebby | France — Draw No Bet (-120) | PointsBet |
Odds as of Monday afternoon.
BJ Cunningham: Hungary +1 (+115) vs. Portugal
- Odds available at DraftKings
Listen, nobody gave Hungary a shot in 2016 when it earned a 3-3 draw with Portugal at the Euros. Needless to say, the same thing is happening five years later in this Group F opener.
Now, let’s not get things twisted. Portugal’s attack is completely frightening, with the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes, Diogo Jota, Bernardo Silva, Joao Felix and Andre Silva leading the charge.
I mean there is just so much talent in this attack. Those guys are part of an offense that averaged a whopping 2.35 expected goals per 90 minutes during Euro and World Cup qualifying. Obviously, offense will not be an issue for Portugal, but what will be an issue is its defense.
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Portugal has Manchester City’s Rúben Dias, who was one of the best defenders in the Premier League this season, but he will be paired with either 37-year-old José Fonte or 38-year-old Pepe. That’s not really ideal.
To give Hungary some hope, this match will be played in Budapest, so there’s a little bit of positivity for the nation. The Hungarians do have a couple of guys that play for RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga, like goalkeeper Péter Gulácsi and defender Willi Orban, so that’s a plus as well.
Looking at this contest, I’ll be honest. I think Hungary is going to completely park the bus and play for a 0-0 draw. And even if it does go down a goal, I don’t see the game opening up a ton.
Therefore, I’ll take Hungary +1 at +116 odds and hope for a defensive masterclass.
Jeremy Pond: Hungary vs. Portugal — Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
- Odds available at BetMGM
You have got to feel for Hungary entering this competition. Not only is it one of the weaker teams in the field, it was also drawn into the “Group of Death” with France, Germany and Portugal.
I guess the one “positive” for the nation, which sits 37th in the latest FIFA world rankings, is the fact it avoided the heavily favored French in its opener and gets a slightly lesser power in Portugal as its debut opponent.
Portugal is stacked from top to bottom, featuring Cristiano Ronaldo (Juventus), Bernardo Silva (Manchester City), Diogo Jota (Liverpool) and Bruno Fernandes (Manchester United) to name a few of its stars.
As you see in the graphic above, my colleague, BJ, has this match projected at 2.36 expected goals vis his model. That keeps us just slightly under 2.5 goals, so it gives me even more confidence in my top pick at -125 odds via BetMGM in this spot.
I fully expect Hungary to bunker in against this vaunted Portugal side, cramming eight to nine players in the penalty area when its favored opponent drives forward early and often. And it goes without saying the fact this match is on home soil in Budapest can’t hurt the Hungarians’ chances of potentially bagging a point via a coveted draw — or at least keep it close — in this affair.
If you’re looking for a little extra, albeit with more juice attached to the wager, play both teams to not score at -162 odds at DraftKings as well. Portugal has triumphed in four of the last five games between these countries, with its victories coming via shutout.
Anthony Dabbundo: France — Draw No Bet (-120) vs. Germany
- Odds available at DraftKings
Germany actually opened as the favorite in Munich before money came in on the French, flipping the defending World Cup winner into the betting choice. The market hasn’t moved far enough, though, as France is a much more cohesive unit with an established way of playing under manager Didier Deschamps than the German side.
France will have the edge on set pieces due to its height. Les Bleus have the edge in defense, because they have a settled back four, three of whom started the World Cup final.
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Germany has plenty of uncertainty with team selection all over the pitch, and has been in much worse form through qualifying and the Nations League. This is the final international tournament for manager Joachim Löw and a terrible matchup for the Germans.
The French will likely be willing to cede some of the possession to the slow, often painfully build-up passing of the German midfield. When France wins the ball, look for Paul Pogba to play balls over the top to Kylian Mbappé or Antoine Griezmann to link up with striker Karim Benzema.
The French are better in every area on the pitch and should be a bigger favorite. That said, take the French, a side that has proven itself with its well-established identity over one with more questions than answers entering the tournament.
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Matthew Trebby: France — Draw No Bet (-120) vs. Germany
- Odds available at PointsBet
Since the return of international play last September, Germany’s record is 6-5-2 (W-D-L). The most noteworthy results were the defeats — a 6-0 loss to Spain in November and a 2-1 defeat at the hands of (rubs eyes to be sure) North Macedonia.
German coach Joachim Löw is relying on a new generation of stars in this tournament, and they are yet to click. He recalled Thomas Müller and Mats Hummels for the Euros in hopes of combining the new guard with some of the old, but the results simply haven’t been there.
The lack of results for Germany makes it difficult for me to see it compete with the reigning world champion and clear tournament favorite. France is strong at every spot on the field, and I might back their back-up Starting XI against the Germans as well.
I accept Germany is still a very talented group, so to play it safe, I’m going to back the France — Draw No Bet option, which refunds your bet if this one ends in a stalemate. I’d make this wager up to -130 odds.
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