Marcio Machado/Getty Images. Pictured: Switzerland standout Breel Embolo, center, celebrates a goal with his teammate.
We have another busy Euro 2020 schedule Wednesday, with one of the tournament’s top contenders taking the field for the second time in group play.
There are three games on the slate, including: Finland vs. Russia (Group B); Turkey vs. Wales (Group A); and, the featured contest on the slate that will pit title contender Italy against feisty Switzerland in a Group A showdown.
Our Action Network soccer analysts have you covered when it comes to your tournament needs, providing game previews, in-depth analysis and selections.
As for these latest contests, handicappers BJ Cunningham, Jeremy Pond, Matthew Trebby and Anthony Dabbundo have unveiled their best bets covering two of the affairs.
That said, let’s take a look at their favorite picks on the card.
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Wednesday’s Best Bets
| ANALYST | PICK | ODDS | BEST BOOK |
|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Pond | Finland vs. Russia — Over 2.5 (+143) | DraftKings |
| BJ Cunningham | Switzerland +1 (-136) | DraftKings |
| Anthony Dabbundo | Italy vs. Switzerland — Over 2.25 (-103) | DraftKings |
| Matthew Trebby | Switzerland +0.5 (+138) vs. Italy | DraftKings |
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon.
Jeremy Pond: Finland vs. Russia — Total Over 2.5 Goals (+143)
- Odds available at DraftKings
If you told me Finland would be sitting in second place after one Group B match, I probably would have thought you were a little crazy. Well, that’s where we stand entering Wednesday’s games and the Finns could lock up a spot in the knockout round with a victory.
Finland opened with a 1-0 triumph over Denmark, albeit under complicated circumstances following Danish captain Christian Eriksen’s medical emergency in the first half of the game. The Finns picking up the win came as a huge surprise, especially since they closed at double-digit odds on the three-way moneyline at several sportsbooks.
In contrast, Russia was run off the Gazprom Arena pitch in Saint Petersburg by tournament favorite Belgium in a 3-0 rout. Now, the Russians will be forced to chase all three points to improve their chances of getting out of the group.
Handicapping this match has led me to the facts that we have Finland, which has one of the worst defenses in the field despite that shutout against Denmark, facing a desperate Russian side that’s equally as porous in the back. Needless to say, that screams “Over” in my ears.
For those reasons, I’m backing the total going over 2.5 goals at ripe +143 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. This is a win-or-bust match for the Russians and the fact they’re playing on home soil again in Saint Petersburg has me believing they could hit three goals on their own.
Fellow handicappers Michael Leboff and BJ Cunningham, who has Finland locked in as an over team in this competition, are also on board with this betting angle. Needless to say, that gives me even more confidence that we’re in for some fireworks.
So, sit back and enjoy what could be one of the more wild matches of the entire group stage.
BJ Cunningham: Switzerland +1 (-136) vs. Italy
- Odds available at DraftKings
What Italy figured out early on is they weren’t going to penetrate the Turkey defense through the middle, so they played a lot of crosses in from the outside or had Insigne and Berardi use their creative ability to try and beat Turkey’s wing backs and it worked.
Now it’s going to be a little more difficult beat Switzerland on the outside because they play out of a 3-4-1-2 formation and have two great wingbacks in Ricardo Rodriguez and Kevin Mbabu and those two guys will be very important in this match because they’ll be asked to defend much more often than they did against Wales in the opener and will be key in trying to shut down Insigne and Berardi.
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Switzerland was really unlucky to draw with Wales opener as they dominated the match, out creating them 2.01 to 0.52, but their defense is just really solid and I think should be able to handle this Italian attack.
The key for them is to not fall into the same trap Turkey did and become too defensive, they have a ton of pace going forward with Breel Embolo, who dominated the Welsh defense and should be able to get through Italy’s two aging center backs of Chiellini and Bonucci.
I only have the Italians projected as a -118 favorite for this match, so I think there is some value on the Swiss spread of +1 at -120 and would play it up to -130 odds if you can find that number leading up to the match.
Anthony Dabbundo: Italy vs. Switzerland — Total Over 2.25 Goals (-103)
- Odds available at DraftKings
Italy and Switzerland had two of the more impressive attacking showings of the first set of matches of the group stage. Italy thrashed Turkey, which offered little resistance in the midfield. The Turks enabled the Italians to complete 12 passes into the penalty area, resulting in 24 shots. Italy also completed a whopping 86.2% of its passes in the victory.
Switzerland will offer more resistance in the midfield and should make it more difficult for Italy, but the underdog could also be much more of a threat in transition.
The Italians were able to isolate and stifle Turkish striker Burak Yilmaz, but the Swiss have a much stronger base of the midfield. They also have an excellent ball mover and shot getter in Breel Embolo, along with a top tier passer in veteran Xherdan Shaqiri.
Switzerland could have scored two or three goals against Wales with better finishing, and Embolo’s pace and ability with the ball at his feet will present a much tougher challenge to Italy’s older center backs.
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Matthew Trebby: Switzerland +0.5 (+138) vs. Italy
- Odds available at DraftKings
Unlike Turkey, which had no pace going forward or quality in the midfield, Switzerland has potential to be a bad matchup for Italy.
The Swiss defense had one hole in its opening match, allowing 6-foot-5 Welsh striker Kieffer Moore to find a late header. I’m not overly concerned about the backline, though, since it’s full of established players at the club level and backed by a strong midfield and pair of wingbacks.
Granit Xhaka will be able to keep more of the ball by himself than the Turkish midfield did, and the Swiss attack presents a lot more of a problem for Italy than its first opponent.
Italy will struggle against strikers with plenty of pace, which is what Breel Embolo has. Both Italian center backs — Giorgio Chiellini and Leonardo Bonucci — are in their mid-30s and coming off less-than-stellar seasons at Juventus. Expect Embolo’s pace and energy to give them fits.
Switzerland dominated Wales, but couldn’t get a result. I expect a similarly strong performance against an Italian team that benefitted from a weak opponent. Back the Swiss to get a great result in Rome.
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