Duke vs. Pittsburgh Odds

Duke looks to rebound after dropping its first conference game of the season last week as it battles Pittsburgh Tuesday.

This isn’t the typical Duke team we’re all used to seeing.

The Blue Devils are 5-3 on the season, and only two of their five wins have come against teams in the KenPom top 100. They did, however, get star freshman Jalen Johnson back for the Virginia Tech game, so maybe the Blue Devils will start to gel better now that they are fully healthy.

Former Duke assistant and current Pittsburgh head coach Jeff Capel knows the Blue Devils program all too well.

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However, he has yet to beat his former boss with Pittsburgh. He’ll have a tremendous opportunity to do that on Tuesday against Duke in a down year.

That chance is elevated more because Panthers star Justin Champagnie has returned to the lineup after missing the last two games due to injury. He casually dropped in 32 points and 16 rebounds as Pittsburgh routed Syracuse by 20 points on Saturday, so the Blue Devils will have their hands full with Champagnie on Tuesday.

When Duke has the ball

Duke is really struggling on offense this season, as its effective field goal percentage, 3-point percentage, and 2-point percentage sits just above the NCAA average.

One of the biggest differences from last year is that Duke’s attempting way more 3-pointers. However, it has a lower 3-point percentage than last season, so it begs the question: Why aren’t the Blue Devils going to the rim more?

Outside of its fouling issues, Pittsburgh has been the best defense in ACC play, allowing only 0.93 points per possession. The reason for that is it defends the perimeter better than anybody, allowing only 23.8% from beyond the arc.

That will come in handy against a Duke team that is attempting 3s on over 38% of their field goal attempts.

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When Pittsburgh has the ball

Things are pretty simple for the Panthers on offense: get the ball to Champagnie, and get out of the way.

The sophomore is an absolute monster on the offensive end of the floor, averaging 18.9 points and 12.9 rebounds. In fact, he has one of the highest offensive rebound rates in the ACC and grabbed six against Syracuse on Saturday.

However, Pittsburgh has struggled to shoot the ball this season, as it’s averaging only 30.8% from beyond the arc.

However, the Panthers are getting to the free-throw line at a very high rate, but they’re shooting only 64.2% from the charity stripe. The reality is their offense revolves around Champagnie, so if he’s having an off night, then the Panthers are usually struggling.

Duke is desperately struggling during ACC play, allowing 1.07 points per possession. It ranks dead last in the conference in 3-point percentage allowed and 12th in 2-point percentage allowed.

Really, the only two areas it excels in is turning opponents over and defensive rebounding, which will come in handy since those are two areas of strength for Pittsburgh on offense.

Betting Analysis & Pick

With Champagnie back in the lineup, Pittsburgh looks like a totally different team.

I honestly don’t know how Duke is going to slow him down. With all of their struggles on both ends of the floor, the Blue Devils are certainly going to have their hands full against this Panthers squad.

I have this game projected closer to a pick’em, so I’ll back the Panthers’ moneyline of +130.

Pick: Pittsburgh +130.

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