Don Juan Moore/Getty Images. Pictured: Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa.
Action’s Director of Predictive Analytics, Sean Koerner, simulated the 2021 NFL season 10,000 times to project win totals and playoff odds for every AFC East team in order to identify early value on their futures.
Here’s how he sees things shaking out for the Miami Dolphins.
Dolphins 2022 Super Bowl Odds
Miami is sitting at +3500 to win it all in Super Bowl LVI this season as of July 30.
| Super Bowl Odds at DraftKings | +3500 |
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Dolphins Win Total Projections
| Average Wins | 9.1 |
| Make vs. Miss Playoffs | 49.5% vs. 50.5% |
| Win Total at DraftKings | Over 9.5 (+105) / Under 9.5 (-125) |
Dolphins Betting Predictions
Tua Tagovailoa’s rookie season was a disappointment almost any way you slice it. Here is where he ranked in a few key metrics I like to look at for QBs (out of 43 qualified passers):
- ANY/A: 5.4 (32nd)
- QB Rating: 87.1 (29th)
- EPA/play: (31st)
Tua was a below-average quarterback as a rookie, but he was above average when comparing him to other rookie seasons. Since 2010, there have been 42 rookie QBs to attempt 200+ passes; here is how Tua stacked up against his peers:
- ANY/A: 5.4 (18th)
- QB Rating: 87.1 (13th)
Considering Tua was coming off a significant hip injury and entered the league with a COVID-deleted offseason, I’m willing to cut him some slack. However, I expect him to make considerable progress this year, especially with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle added to the mix.
The Dolphins’ offensive line is a huge question mark considering they will have three second-year players in the starting lineup. It could prevent them from posting 10+ wins, but their above-average defense will keep them above .500 and they’ll finish 9-8.
Plays: Under 9.5 (+105) at DraftKings
2021 AFC East Projections
There could be a real battle between the Dolphins and Patriots this year for second place in the AFC East.
| Team | 1st Place |
2nd Place |
3rd Place |
4th Place |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 63.1% | 23.5% | 11.3% | 2.1% |
| Miami Dolphins | 19.7% | 33.8% | 32.1% | 14.3% |
| New England Patriots | 15.5% | 35.2% | 37.5% | 11.8% |
| New York Jets | 1.5% | 7.7% | 19.3% | 71.5% |