Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: David Price.
Dodgers vs. Phillies Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -135 |
| Phillies Odds | +115 |
| Over/Under | 10 |
| Time | Wednesday, 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings | |
The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers were in the midst of a pitchers’ duel when the rain ended the dominant starts of Aaron Nola and Max Scherzer after four innings. The result was extended bullpen use for both sides in the series opener, which could spell trouble for the pitching later on in the series.
The Dodgers snapped the Phillies’ eight-game winning streak, and now lefty David Price looks to give Philadelphia its second-straight defeat against right-hander Kyle Gibson.
Gibson has been stellar in his first two starts since Philadelphia acquired him at the trade deadline, but he hasn’t faced a lineup close to the Dodgers one he’ll face on Wednesday. With 90-degree heat and humidity and a wind straight out to center field forecasted at Citizens Bank Park, Wednesday should feature plenty of offense.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
David Price has made eight starts this year and only gotten through five innings twice. He’s allowed at least three runs in three of those eight starts. After taking 2020 off, he hasn’t been particularly effective when asked to pitch multiple innings. His strikeout numbers are lower than every year since 2013 and his hits per 9 allowed is the highest of his career.
Price has done a good job of avoiding barrels and hard contact for the most part this year, but that’s a dangerous way to play inside Citizens Bank Park on Wednesday night. His ERA is 1.30 higher on the road partially because Dodger Stadium is much more conducive to his style of pitching and keeping the ball in the stadium. His 4.21 FIP is more indicative to his true pitching this year than his 3.53 ERA.
The Dodgers offense has been vulnerable against left-handed pitching all year, but Philadelphia only has one available southpaw in its bullpen tonight. It’ll be almost all righties from Philadelphia against a team that is third in OPS+ against righties and second in walk rate.
Philadelphia Phillies
Gibson is a ground-ball pitcher, which is beneficial when you play in Texas with one of the best infield defenses in the league.
Philadelphia, though, is not that.
Typical starters Alec Bohm at third base and Didi Gregorius at shortstop are among the worst defensively in the entire league at their positions. Manager Joe Girardi could improve the defense by playing Ronald Torreyes at short, but it’s still an issue for Philadelphia. Gibson was fortunate to pitch around multiple jams in his last outing against the Mets, and this Dodgers lineup could prove difficult for him if he can’t strike anyone out.
Offensively, the Phillies will have LF Andrew McCutchen back in the lineup. His 123 OPS+ is a big improvement over Travis Jankowski (87 OPS+) and Odubel Herrera (92 OPS+). Philadelphia’s surface numbers against left-handed pitching aren’t all that impressive, but there’s reason to expect them to improve. Since June 1, Philadelphia is top-five in walk and strikeout rate against lefties.
With a trio of righties in McCutchen, Jean Segura and J.T. Realmuto, there’s no reason Philadelphia shouldn’t hit lefties well. They did each of the last two years and should be able to get to Price early in the game.
Dodgers-Phillies Pick
Citizens Bank Park is known as one of the league’s biggest hitters’ park on a normal day. But with 70% humidity, 90-degree heat and a 10 mph wind blowing straight out to center, it’s the perfect environment for runs and home runs.
With two starters striking out less than nine batters per nine innings, the ball will be in play on Wednesday night.
Both bullpens saw extensive use on Tuesday after the rain delay, and all of those factors make for a recipe for runs. Anything over 10 at -110 or better is worth a play.
Pick: Over 10 (-110 or better)
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