Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Walker Buehler.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -145 |
| Padres Odds | +125 |
| Over/Under | 8 |
| Time | Wednesday, 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings | |
Entering the 2021 season, most experts and projections systems expected the Dodgers and Padres to be competing deep into August and September for the division title. Many expected Walker Buehler and Blake Snell to be among the top pitchers in the National League, too.
But now that August has arrived, Los Angeles is in second in the NL West behind San Francisco. San Diego is outside the playoff spots right now and will have a lot of work to surpass Cincinnati for the wild card. Buehler has excelled and is a Cy Young candidate, but Snell is having the worst year of his career.
The Dodgers and Padres are trending in opposite directions headed into the second game of this three-game series. San Diego’s vaunted offense has slumped while LAD is surging post trade deadline. Despite Snell’s season-long struggles, though, the under has value in the first five innings as the Dodgers haven’t fared well against lefties and the Padres lineup hasn’t hit well in weeks.
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Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have one of MLB’s most potent lineups, top-to-bottom. They’re top 3 in most offensive categories against righties, which is a significant majority of their plate appearances this season.
But when Los Angeles faces lefties, it’s not nearly as effective. The Dodgers are average in walk rate, below average in strikeout rate and 16th in wRC+ against southpaws.
Buehler is a Cy Young candidate with a 2.11 ERA, 2.96 xERA and 3.13 FIP. He hasn’t allowed more than two runs in a start since July 5 against Miami. He’s top 25 percentile in nearly every pitching category from xERA to xwOBA to spin rate on his fastball and breaking balls.
San Diego Padres
Many equated the Fernando Tatis Jr. injury as the reason for the Padres downturn in the last month. But he has since returned to the lineup, and San Diego hasn’t improved. The Padres rank 21st in OPS in the last 28 days and 21st in total home runs hit in the same time frame. The Friars are 29th in the last seven days since Tatis returned to the lineup.
San Diego’s starting pitching is another reason it hasn’t performed as well, but its vaunted and deep lineup has been neither in the last month. Now, the Padres will face one of the NL’s top pitchers.
A major reason for the Dodgers lacking success against LHP is Snell himself, who has shut them down on three separate occasions this year and did so twice in the World Series with Tampa Bay last season.
There are signs that Snell is starting to figure out his issues on the mound, too. Snell has allowed three or fewer runs in each of his last four starts. His walks remain an issue against the Dodgers lineup, but he has limited big innings in recent starts that have previously plagued him.
Trent Grisham, Manny Machado, Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham have all struggled in the heart of the San Diego order for the last month with an OPS below .750 and until they snap out of their collective funk, the Padres will continue their slide out of the playoff race.
Dodgers-Padres Pick
With San Diego’s offense slumping, Snell improving and the Dodgers’ relative struggles against lefties, runs will be tough to come by early. Throw in Buehler’s dominance of most of MLB this season, and Under 4 at -115 or better is worth a play in the first five innings.
Eventually, San Diego will break out of its slump offensively and score some runs in bunches, but Wednesday is unlikely to be that night.
Pick: First Five Innings Under 4 (-115 or better)
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