Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts.
Dodgers vs. Padres Odds
| Dodgers Odds | -113 |
| Padres Odds | -103 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-115 / -106) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
Clayton Kershaw has been nails against the Padres this year, but unlike his two previous starts against LA’s rival, Yu Darvish won’t be on the other end of the pitching matchup. Instead, Blake Snell will be the man to take the ball for the Padres, and he’s been anything but nails this year.
Can San Diego stay hot and keep improving in its ascendance in the NL West with a big win here? Let’s have a look at where the value lies tonight.
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Can Los Angeles Keep It Up Against Snell?
It’s a meme at this point, but the Dodgers simply can’t hit left-handed pitching.
For all they do so well at the plate, they rank just 19th in OPS to lefties and have lost to some of the weakest in the game like Marco Gonzales.
Most concerning in this split would be a 24% strikeout rate, which ranks 12th-highest against lefties, though only contact seems to be the issue. LA is still proficient in the walk department within the split at 11.2%, and that’s good news considering it’s the walk champions of the league at 11.1% against any handedness. At the very least, its approach seems to be solid.
The good news for the Dodgers is that in their meetings with Snell this year, they’ve totaled nine hits in 10 1/3 innings to go along with four walks. At the very least, they’re getting traffic on the basepaths.
As for the Dodgers’ starter, Kershaw hasn’t quite been himself this season. He’s coming off a game in which he allowed eight hits (including a homer) in six innings against the Phillies, which made it three clunkers in four tries.
The only game he looked decent in was a win over the Rangers, but that’s hardly an accomplishment these days.
Like Snell, his numbers have been bad, but when it’s come to this rivalry, he’s been good, throwing 13 innings of three-run ball with 15 strikeouts over his two meetings with San Diego.
Padres Need to Produce Runs With Snell Pitching
When you step back and take a broad view of the Padres’ offense over the past two weeks, it doesn’t look very good. They had some horrible losses to the Mets and Cubs and were swept in Colorado before picking up a sweep of their own against the Reds.
It was a step in the right direction, but even then, it wasn’t like they were going up against world-beating arms.
Monday night, however, caught my attention. The Padres rocked Julio Urias — who entered with a 2.03 career ERA against San Diego — before he could even record an out and picked up 10 hits on the night. It took a while, but the Padres could finally be snapping out of it.
San Diego seems to need a lot of runs when Snell is on the mound. The lefty is coming off perhaps his worst start of the season, a shellacking at Coors Field that resulted in seven runs on nine hits and two walks over 3 1/3 innings.
It’s simply been a disaster of a year for Snell, who has kept himself fantasy-relevant with a boatload of strikeouts, but to the rest of us has been ineffective.
He’s in the bottom 15% of the league in expected ERA, barrel rate and walk rate. Free passes have been a giant issue for him, but so has hard contact.
Dodgers-Padres Pick
The thing about this game is, as bad as the Dodgers are against lefties, the Padres are even worse.
San Diego is way down in 20th in wRC+ against southpaws, which probably puts both offenses on level playing fields. Once the automatic Dodgers-versus-a-lefty fade is out the door, all that’s left is to look at the pitching matchup.
While both have had their struggles, there’s no question that Kershaw is much, much better than Snell at the moment. His shortcomings have been scattered, whereas Snell has really only put together a handful of solid starts.
I’m also looking at the Dodgers’ high walk rate here, which should really be an issue for Snell. He’s been one of the worst starters when it comes to issuing free passes and doesn’t match up well against a lineup as picky as this.
It’s also obviously a terrible matchup due to the Dodgers’ exit velocity machines.
LA has been the better lineup over the last couple of weeks, and it’s off the hook for struggling against lefties. With the stronger starter, the Dodgers should prevail on the road.
Pick: Dodgers ML -109
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