Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego Padres starting pitcher Yu Darvish.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +235 |
| Padres Odds | -278 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (+105 / -125) |
| Time | 4:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Sunday morning via William Hill. | |
It took weeks and weeks, but the Arizona Diamondbacks finally picked up a road win Saturday in a 10-1 romp against the San Diego Padres. It seemed to be coming for a while, with a couple tight losses in San Francisco where Arizona scored a bundle of runs, and a five-run showing in Friday’s game.
Nevertheless, with the monkey off their backs, should we really be this quick to fade the Diamondbacks again? Could both teams score some runs? Let’s take a look at the matchup.
Diamondbacks Snap Record-Setting Road Skid in Style
It seemed fitting that a 24-game road losing streak — the longest in major-league history — would end with a no-doubt 10-1 victory, just as Arizona’s 17-game losing streak came to a halt just a few games ago with a convincing 5-1 win over the Brewers. The bottom line here is that over the last seven games, at least, the Diamondbacks have begun to look like a big-league club.
During that span, the Diamondbacks are hitting .274, which checks in as the fifth-best mark in baseball, with a great .328 wOBA. They’ve done it all despite the fifth-lowest hard-hit rate in baseball, trading in quality of contact for quantity of contact. That makes it the sixth-best clip in the league, plus they’re walking 10.5% of the time.
Speaking of walks, that’s not a word Zac Gallen would like to hear right now. He’s issued a free pass to more than 10% of the hitters he’s seen and hasn’t seemed to completely settle in to be his dominant self. The consensus is Gallen is good, yet he’s hardly been a consistent option for a team that could really use one.
Gallen has had had seven starts, and three of them were disappointments. One was his first start back from an injury just over a week ago, but another was against the Colorado Rockies at home.
It’s been a wild ride backing Gallen this year, but when you look at the sum of this season it doesn’t look all that bad. He’s actually the proud owner of a 3.17 expected ERA and a 29.3% strikeout rate. The issue has been that he’s walked too many hitters and been burned a couple times by costly barrels. His luck could stand to turn, but he also needs to fix his walk issues.
San Diego Ace Darvish Having Another Big Campaign
Only two things have given Yu Darvish problems this season. One was the Houston Astros, perhaps the best offensive team in baseball, and the other was the hitter-friendly Coors Field.
Other than that, Darvish has been dominant in the rest of his 13 starts, and on the whole, has had yet another great season. He’s backed up his 2.01 ERA last year with a 2.50 mark in 2021 and has once again eclipsed the 30% mark in strikeout rate.
If you want to pick out any thing to be slightly concerned about with Darvish, it’s his spin rate. Obviously, he’s been lights out for his entire career and isn’t a guy who magically transformed himself into a good pitcher with illegal substances. He’s also not a suspected user of sticky stuff.
Whatever the reason, though, his spin rates are down over his past three starts. His four-seam fastball has always sat comfortably above 2,500 rpms in the Statcast era, but he’s been in the mid-to-low 2,400s in his past two starts. It could be fatigue or he could be pitching hurt. Maybe Darvish could be getting a worse grip on the baseball. He pitched at altitude two starts ago, but was back home last week and saw the same kind of decrease in spin rate.
We don’t know what the reason is, but it’s something worth noting. It’s also a good sign Darvish still struck out 11 hitters in a win over the Los Angeles Dodgers, allowing just one run on two hits. Only time will tell if Darvish continues to pitch with a lower spin rate and whether or not it will affect his performance. So far so good, though.
Diamondbacks-Padres Pick
The Diamondbacks’ offense has shown some signs of life lately, and now run into a version of Darvish which isn’t quite what we’ve seen all season long. The Dodgers failed to get to him, but they’re also kind of an enigma at the plate right now. Arizona is at least making a ton of contact and might find themselves in some run-scoring positions.
Meanwhile, San Diego has been stellar at the plate. It owns the third-best wRC+ over the past two weeks and has walked at an impressive 10.4% clip. Considering Gallen’s shortcomings this year, and his issues with walks, this is a matchup that might give him issues.
I like the security of over 7 runs, but you’d have to pay around -124 odds for that which is quite expensive. With that, my pick will be the more enticing over 7.5 runs in this showdown.
Pick: Total Over 7.5 (+105)
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