Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Pavin Smith.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +245 |
| Padres Odds | -310 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-115 / -105) |
| Time | 8:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds as of Saturday morning and via DraftKings. | |
Two NL West teams heading in the wrong direction will meet again on Saturday, with the playoff-hopeful Padres requiring two straight wins to pull off a series victory over the weak Diamondbacks.
After blowing a 5-0 lead it secured in the first inning on Friday, San Diego will hope Yu Darvish can bring some stability and give its bullpen a break.
With both offenses struggling of late, is this line correct, or are oddsmakers failing to give Arizona the respect it deserves? Let’s take a look below.
_BookPromo=1425
Diamondbacks Showing Some Life
At this point, you should be well aware the Diamondbacks are out of the race. Sitting at 35-76 and 34.5 games out of first place in the NL West, there’s only pride to play for at this point.
However, that hasn’t stopped the Snakes from pulling out a couple of wins over the Giants and Friars over the last four games and having some great nights at the dish. They may have a 76 wRC+ over the last two weeks, but Asdrubal Cabrera has been a man alive, and Pavin Smith has been an instant hit since his return, going 4-for-9 with four RBIs.
Smith has added another dangerous layer to this offense, which has enough talent to just scare you a little bit if you’re an opposing pitcher.
But Taylor Widener doesn’t seem to have that same imposing quality.
The righty has allowed exactly five runs in each of his last three outings, and while he’s struggled with walks and hard-hit balls this year, at least the strikeouts have risen in recent games with eight against the Giants last time out.
Those will help neutralize some of the damage done by the hard contact, but the walks will have to dissipate along with the rise in punchouts. Working for Widener here is the fact the Padres have struck out a lot lately and have walked at close to a 7% clip over the last two weeks.
Can the Padres Bounce Back?
That’s now seven losses in 11 games for the Padres, who have slipped to 7.5 games back of the first-place Giants in the NL West. Friday’s was especially crushing, with an aforementioned five-spot in the first inning ultimately not being enough against one of the league’s worst offenses.
So, what’s going wrong for San Diego?
Well, for starters, it’s missing Fernando Tatis Jr. and now Jurickson Profar. The former is the best bat in the lineup, and the latter provided some help around the diamond with Tatis out.
On a larger scale, the Padres own just a 101 wRC+ — signifying almost an exactly average offense — over the last two weeks with a large 25.1% strikeout rate.
Over that span, Manny Machado (170 wRC+) has carried the freight, but the rest of the Padres have either been average or very bad. Wil Myers has been mired in a bad slump, Trent Grisham hasn’t brought much to the table and finds himself buried in the order, and Adam Frazier has given his new team nothing.
That sounds very harsh, but it’s the truth. The Padres have too much talent to be struggling like this.
Going from sore subject to sore subject, how about Yu Darvish? Ever since the league’s crackdown on foreign substances, the veteran has seen his spin rates drop and his numbers tank, posting a 7.36 ERA in five July starts.
It seems ridiculous he’d see this kind of drop-off with so much experience, but perhaps the sticky stuff was helping him hang on as he winds down his big-league career. The nine homers in July are of particular concern; it’s not as if he’s getting unlucky out there. His pitches are just getting punished.
Diamondbacks-Padres Pick
The Padres have been putting together some sloppy at-bats lately and look lost at the plate. Aside from one big inning on Friday, the Diamondbacks’ pitching seemed to have their number, and that’s a microcosm of what’s happened lately. The outbursts have come very sporadically for this offense.
Darvish has been flat-out bad, and it doesn’t appear an end is in sight to his poor pitching. The only thing that can help him is a let-up offensively, which the Diamondbacks are perfectly capable of. They’ve also exhibited solid at-bats lately and have looked inspired at the plate ever since Smith returned from the COVID-19 list.
It’s around August when you start seeing wild odds like these, and I think this is our first big shot to take. The Diamondbacks have nothing to play for, but that shouldn’t stop them from taking advantage of a pitcher in bad form. I’m going for it.
Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+245)
_BookPromo=3770