Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona manager Torey Lovullo is ejected by umpire Will Little.
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | +160 |
| Dodgers Odds | -186 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-109 / -112) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Thursday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
The Diamondbacks are looking rough at the moment, and will try to salvage something of this four-game set against the Dodgers in Thursday’s finale after Los Angeles has taken the first three comfortably.
Merrill Kelly will try once again to be the stopper for Arizona, but with his numbers on the year looking bleak, it could be more of the same on Thursday night for the surging Dodgers. Let’s have a look at the numbers and find out where the value lies.
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Could Be A Long Night For Kelly, Snakes
It’s a tough time to be a fan of the Diamondbacks, with the Snakes losing seven out of eight. There seems to be no end in sight to the Rockies-esque offensive drought that this team is enduring, either, with so many big bats on the shelf. Asdrubal Cabrera was the latest to go down, hurting his hamstring a week ago, joining Carson Kelly, Christian Walker and Kole Calhoun on the injured list. There’s simply no one left that can do any damage, and that’s a big reason why Arizona has posted just a 36 wRC+ over the last week, which is by far the worst in baseball over that span.
Then there’s the rotation. Kelly, like a lot of the Diamondbacks starters not named Madison Bumgarner, has struggled of late. The righty showed some promise in 2020, but his walk rate has shot back up over the league average and his strikeouts are all the way down to 17.3%.
Pitching to contact doesn’t look particularly good on Kelly, who has allowed a .411 xwOBA on contact this season. He’s in for a long night against a Dodgers team that’s found its groove at the plate, and he’s going to have to keep them at bay given the lack of run support every starter has had of late.
Dodgers Are Clicking, Regardless Of Who Is On The Mound
It appears that the Dodgers may, in fact, be back. This team, which has endured injuries to Cody Bellinger and Corey Seager so far this season, has begun to hit, winning seven of its last eight and posting a 113 wRC+ over the last week. Gavin Lux has been a particular bright spot, posting a 194 wRC+ in the past seven days and taking over shortstop for Seager quite admirably. He is hitting grand slams and making bare-handed plays out in the field. It’s the player Dodgers fans have been waiting for, and he’s driving this team to new heights.
Lux has been great, but it doesn’t stop there. Max Muncy has hit .409 over the past week, Will Smith has posted a .478 wOBA, and Mookie Betts has begun to get it going a bit at the plate, too. The upside here is pretty grand considering how pedestrian the latter has looked, even in a lineup that’s very top-heavy at the moment.
The Dodgers will be leaning on their bullpen to get the job done against the Diamondbacks with no starting pitcher announced as of this writing, but they shouldn’t have an issue regardless of who is on the bump. Not only has this bullpen posted a 3.53 ERA over the past 30 days, which ranks sixth in the league, it features a whole host of righties, which should come in handy against a team that’s found its only success against left-handers.
Even if David Price has a sizable role here, which he’s expected to, I’d project most of the innings to be handled by right-handed pitching. It likely won’t matter too much anyway considering how poor the Diamondbacks have hit.
Diamondbacks-Dodgers Pick
Even with Johnny Wholestaff going for the Dodgers, I’m still inclined to take out a position on Los Angeles. It simply has not mattered who’s been facing the Diamondbacks lately, the runs haven’t been there. I have no faith in Kelly to keep the Dodgers off the board, and therefore think Arizona will be asked to produce three to five runs to have any chance here.
That won’t happen. For that reason, I like the team total here for the Diamondbacks, but I like this first five innings spread even more.
Pick: Dodgers First Five -0.5 (-127)
