Daniel Rodriguez vs. Preston Parsons Odds
|Over/Under||1.5 (-126 / +102)|
|Time||Approx. 9:30 p.m. ET|
|Odds as of Friday and via FanDuel.|
Our undercard bet to target for UFC Vegas 31 is in the UFC welterweight division, in which Daniel Rodriguez will face off against Preston Parsons. This is the featured prelim bout and one of the best fights on the entire card.
Rodriguez has won 10 of his last 11 fights and is really improving as a fighter and boxer. His opponent is a grappling phenom who is just 26 years old and has all nine of his wins by submission. Parsons will also be making his UFC debut.
Below, I preview the matchup and odds for tonight’s fight.
Tale of the Tape
|Avg. Fight Time||11:50||N/A|
|Date of birth||12/31/86||7/15/95|
|Sig Strikes Per Min||7.87||N/A|
|SS Absorbed Per Min||5.69||N/A|
|Take Down Avg||1.06||N/A|
Rodriguez is an excellent boxer who dominated Mike Perry in his last fight. The volume that Rodriguez has shown in his stand-up game is most impressive.
Rodriguez should clearly be the better striker in this fight. Where he may run into problems is in the grappling department. He is by no means unable to grapple, but his opponent projects to have a significant advantage in this area.
Parsons has most of his wins via armbar. Interestingly, Parsons has two losses, one of which was to Perry. Despite the commonality in that single opponent, it seems bizarre to give Parsons this difficult of a matchup in his UFC debut.
Parsons loves playing off of his back to get submissions. His ground game is extremely fluid, constantly flipping positions at will. However, as many fighters have learned, playing off your back is a recipe for disaster in MMA.
Moreover, the worry for Parsons is what happens if the grappling does not go his way early. Parsons running in for an early takedown could be a recipe for disaster against a skilled boxer like Rodriguez.
If you are looking for a bit of film study on Parsons in some smaller promotions, check out the clip below.
Rodriguez vs. Parsons Pick
Rodriguez trains jiu-jitsu with Eddie Bravo over at 10th Planet. He is a black belt who should be adept in the grappling department, even against a world-class submission specialist like Parsons.
Rodriguez has been in many wars in his career, which does not bode well for Parsons. Rodriguez should be able to outbox his opponent with ease and is unlikely to be finished (0 losses by finish in his 16-fight career).
The sticky part of this fight is the grappling side. Rodriguez has an excellent takedown defense (78%) that he has showcased against many strong wrestlers.
Rodriguez stuffed all seven of Nicholas Dalby’s takedowns in his only loss. Most people seem to think that he won that fight (51% on MMAdecisions).
Furthermore, Rodriguez’s average fight time is over 11 minutes. While I agree that Parsons could rush out of the gate and hunt for an early submission, I find it unlikely that he is able to get it down to the ground that quickly.
Parsons will be forced to strike for at least a little making me confident in the over 1.5 rounds prop -110 on BetMGM. Rodriguez has only one finish inside of that time in his last 12 fights. He is a big betting favorite and should control the pace throughout.
Parsons will hunt for takedowns, whether he gets them or not is the major question of the fight. Sportsbooks believe that he will win this fight via KO/TKO. I’d prefer to take a small stab at his decision prop.
Rodriguez is +400 by decision on FanDuel, which I would play down to +360. Parsons has not shown much of anything after the first round. He usually gets his opponent out of there quickly. If he gets tired things could go sideways with Rodriguez’s volume.
The Pick: Over 1.5 rounds -110 (.5u) | Rodriguez by decision +400 (.25u)