Cubs vs. Dodgers Odds
| Cubs Odds | +200 |
| Dodgers Odds | -250 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-115/-105) |
| Time | 10:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Thursday morning via BetMGM. | |
Two of the best teams in the National League open up a four-game series on Thursday as the Chicago Cubs travel to Los Angeles to take on the Dodgers.
It’s been a resurgent year for the Cubs, who currently have the fourth best record in the NL and is only a half game behind the Brewers fro the NL Central lead. They’ve hit a bit of a lull going 4-6 over their past 10 games and they’ll need Zach Davies to give them a solid six innings if they are going to hang with the Dodgers.
The Dodgers haven’t been playing up to their preseason expectations this season and are currently trailing the Giants by 4 games in the NL West and are coming off a sweep at the hands of the Padres. Los Angeles’ bullpen has actually let them down this season, as they’ve been pretty average by MLB standards. The bullpen will hope Walker Buehler can give them some relief.
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Offensive Matchup
Chicago Cubs
The Chicago Cubs lineup has actually been very average by MLB standards, as they only have a .307 wOBA and 95 wRC+. It’s basically been the Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, and Patrick Wisdom show for Chicago, as all three guys have a wOBA over .360.
However, it will be a difficult matchup for the Cubs tonight because they’ve been pretty average versus right handed, ranking 17th in terms of wOBA.
Walker Buehler is mainly a fastball pitcher, throwing it 49.6% of the time and that is actually the pitch the Cubs have struggled against the most this season, ranking 23rd in baseball.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers offense has been really good, but really only against right handed pitching. They have a .338 wOBA and 119 wRC+, which is the second best mark in MLB.
They also have a fantastic matchup against Zach Davies, because he is mainly a sinker/changeup pitcher and the Dodgers have five guys in their lineup with a wOBA over .400 against sinkers and are also the third best team in baseball against changeups.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Zach Davies vs. Walker Buehler
2021 Stats (via FanGraphs)
Cubs Starting Pitcher
Zach Davies, RHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Zach Davies has really been below average this season, as his xERA has ballooned up to 6.33 and his xFIP is currently sitting at 5.30. His biggest problem is he’s walking way too many guys, as his BB/9 rate is over four, which will be a problem against this Dodgers lineup since they have the highest walk percentage in baseball.
Davies mainly goes to either his sinker or changeup over 85% of the time, which is really going to be a problem tonight, since as mentioned above, the Dodgers absolutely crush those two pitches.
Dodgers Starting Pitcher
Walker Buehler, RHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
Walker Buehler has been outstanding for the Dodgers this season, but he is due for a little bit of negative regression because his xERA and xFIP are over a run higher than his ERA. However, this will be a good matchup for him because he’s mainly a fastball pitcher and that is the one pitch the Cubs struggle against.
As far as his offspeed pitches are concerned, Buehler better be careful with how he mixes them tonight, because the Cubs excel against cutters and curveballs, ranking in the top half of baseball against both pitches.
Bullpen/Defensive Matchup
The Cubs will have the advantage in the later innings during this series. Chicago has one of the best bullpens in baseball this season, posting a 2.63 ERA and a 3.91 xFIP. They also have the second highest K/9 rate, third lowest HR/9 rate, and the highest LOB% in Major League Baseball.
The Dodgers on the other hand have been really average. Los Angeles has posted at 4.15 xFIP and also has the ninth worst BB/9 rate in baseball. Another big issue is the Dodgers bullpen is struggling to get out of jams, as they have the third worst LOB% in baseball.
Cubs-Dodgers Pick
Even though this is a great matchup on paper for the Dodgers, I think this line is a little inflated. The Cubs bullpen should be able to right the ship if Davies gets into trouble and the Cubs offense should be able to have some success against Buehler’s offspeed pitches.
Since I only have the Dodgers projected at -144 odds, I think there is some value on the Cubs at +200 via BetMGM and would play them down to +165 in this matchup.
Pick: Cubs ML (+200)
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