Thiago Ribeiro/NurPhoto via Getty Images. Pictured: Neymar.
Brazil vs. Peru Odds
| Brazil Odds | -500 |
| Peru Odds | +1600 |
| Draw | +525 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (-143 / +115) |
| Day | Time | Monday | 7 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | FS1 | Univision | fuboTV |
| Odds updated Monday via DraftKings. | |
Before Euro 2020 has its semifinals on Tuesday and Wednesday, Copa América begins its semifinals on Monday night as the host nation Brazil takes on Peru in a rematch of the 2019 Copa América final.
Since that game, which Brazil won 3-1 to lift the trophy, Brazil has continued to show why it is the class of South America through its recent performances. Meanwhile, Peru has languished in World Cup Qualifying and struggled in this tournament as well.
These two sides did meet in the group stage, a 4-0 win for Brazil, but the Peruvians made their way into the semifinals after a dramatic 3-3 draw with Paraguay as Peru advanced in a penalty shootout. Brazil scored an early second half goal before holding on against Chile.
Despite Peru’s appearance in the semifinal, they’re an overrated and pretty fortunate team to make it this far, and Brazil is undervalued here to win this comfortably.
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Brazil
Brazil entered Copa America as the clear favorite to win the tournament, especially once it was moved for them to be the host nation after complications in Argentina and Colombia, the two original hosts.
Brazil have dominated the entire tournament thus far, winning their group comfortably with three wins and a draw in four matches. Brazil outscored its opponents in the group stage 10-2 and 9.3-2.4 in expected goals.
While its been mostly comfortable for Brazil, it did face some adversity in a 1-0 win against Chile in the quarterfinals on Friday after it finished the match with just 10-men following a 48th minute red card by striker Gabriel Jesus.
Jesus will miss this semifinal due to suspension, but Brazil has plenty of attacking options to replace him as they are one of the deepest international sides in the world.
Brazil have the second most passes into the penalty area and have allowed the fewest at the other end. They lead the tournament in touches in the opponent’s final third and they have creative production from multiple different players.
Neymar is averaging a ridiculous 0.92 xG and 0.69 xA per 90, while Roberto Firmino and Richarlison are averaging 1.02 xG + xA per 90 and 0.78, respectively.
They did have a draw and two wins by just one goal, but they have clearly been the best team in this tournament when you look at almost any metric. They should have no problem finding space to counter if leading in the second half and Peru doesn’t have the defense to cope with Brazil’s attacking options.
Peru
The underlying numbers suggest that Peru was pretty fortunate to get past Paraguay, and they haven’t been impressive in the tournament or the World Cup qualifying that preceded it.
Peru is last currently in qualifying after six of 18 matches. In this tournament, Peru has the worst passes and carries into the penalty area number of any team who made the knockouts. They lost the xG battle to Paraguay despite being up a man for the entire second half.
Peru somehow managed a win against Colombia and draw with Ecuador despite being worse than both in each of those games, losing almost every major statistical category. Peru has the fewest shot creating actions of any knockout teams and has allowed the most.
In terms of shot quality, they are above average in xG per shot, but below average in shot distance, which probably means more regression is due.
Brazil vs. Peru
Peru will try its best to muddy up the midfield, grind the game to a halt and look to catch Brazil on the counter. But Peru’s defense should get overwhelmed by the significant talent gap between them and Brazil’s excellent attacking players.
If trailing in the second half, Peru will be forced to take more chances, which plays into the hands of a Brazil side that is one of the most dangerous in space in the world.
Brazil has been multiple goals better than every team it has played in this tournament, except for a meaningless game with Ecuador at the end of the group stage when they had already qualified as top of the group.
There’s no reason to not expect that to continue on Monday night as Brazil cruises against an overrated Peru side into the semifinal.
Pick: Brazil -1.5 (-135 or better)
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