David Allio/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: MJ Walker.
#5 Colorado vs. #4 Florida State Odds
| Projected Spread | Florida State -2 | |
| Projected Total | 143.5 | |
| Projected ML | Florida State -140 | |
| Time | TBA | |
| TV | TBA | |
| Projected odds based on our initial PRO Projections. Odds will be added once they’re released. | ||
We project Florida State as a small favorite over Colorado in the second round of the 2021 NCAA Tournament, with the winner heading to the Sweet 16.
The Buffaloes routed Georgetown in their opener behind an explosive offensive performance, while FSU needed to hold off a few UNC Greensboro flurries to win by 10.
How Colorado & Florida St. Match Up
| Colorado | vs. | Florida St. |
| 280 | Tempo | 84 |
| 82 | eFG% | 32 |
| 64 | TO% | 241 |
| 81 | OR% | 11 |
| 216 | FTR | 148 |
| 65 | DeFG% | 34 |
| 112 | DTO% | 128 |
| 86 | DR% | 291 |
| 90 | DFTR | 283 |
| All stats via KenPom. | ||
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What To Know About Colorado
A rank of 11th in NET heading into the postseason is masked by a 7-0 record in Quadrant 2 victories. Remove two victories over USC, and the Buffaloes would have no Quadrant 1 wins on their resume. Despite the lack of heavy-hitting wins on the schedule, Colorado finished as the top team in the nation in free-throw percentage, knocking down 83.4% of attempts. Tad Boyle’s team has an equal point distribution from free throws, 3-pointers and inside the arc while excelling in ball protection.
This is one of the most experienced rosters in the nation at a rank of 30th. McKinley Wright is 20th in the nation in assist rate and makes Colorado a dark horse Final Four contender. Advancing in the tournament requires great guard play and hitting free throws, making any opponent that fouls at a high rate a great target for a first round game with the Buffaloes.
They are also right in that sweet spot of having an offensive and defensive efficiency rank that add up to less than 50. This team can shoot, defend, rebound and take care of the ball. When you do those four things and can close out games with nearly automatic free throw shooting, you have a chance of making a run. Colorado’s compact-ish defense does lead to plenty of outside shots for its opponents, which does leave them a bit more vulnerable to variance if a team gets red hot from beyond the arc. — Collin Wilson
What To Know About Florida St.
Leonard Hamilton had Elite Eight and Sweet 16 teams in the two seasons prior to last year, and his ACC-winning squad in 2019-20 was robbed of a chance for a deep run in March by COVID-19. They’re back now and appear just as poised.
The Noles thrive offensively thanks to a top-20 3-point percentage that has them ranked 20th in adjusted offensive efficiency, according to KenPom, while playing at the 79th-ranked pace in the country. Florida State’s defensive is also borderline top-20, allowing opponents to shoot just 40% from the field.
Boasting one of the longest and most athletic defensive units in the country, they can switch everything, which really gives them a ton of flexibility that can stump teams that try to create mismatches on offense. They also use a press at one of the highest rates in the country, which could be problematic for teams lacking ball handlers. (And they have almost unlimited depth that can wear down teams in the second half).
On offense, they are also unbelievably versatile and can exploit teams that can’t guard 1-5. Freshman Scottie Barnes is the only one of the Noles’ top-four scorers who wasn’t with the team last season, and his addition has only enhanced an already fantastic roster. Turnovers can be a bit of an issue on offense, but this team has enough length and athleticism to beat any team in the country when they are on, including Gonzaga, who they have met in the Sweet 16 in each of the past two tournaments. FSU took the first and Gonzaga got revenge in 2019. Maybe we get round 3 this year? — Matt Trebby