Colorado State vs. Toledo Odds & Pick: Bad Spot for Rockets with MAC Play on Deck (Saturday, Sept. 18)

Colorado State vs. Toledo Odds

Toledo came within two minutes of a road upset of Notre Dame as a 17.5-point underdog last week before ultimately falling to the Fighting Irish on a final-minute touchdown.

The Rockets overperformed the box score to get that close to winning, but they really were never in doubt of covering the spread.

Colorado State is next up for the Rockets, as the Rams lost a home game to Vanderbilt by three after two missed field goals and a dominant box score performance.

The Rockets are in a tricky spot with rival Ball State on the schedule for next week to open MAC play. That makes it difficult to get behind them in the second half of this game and back them to cover a large 14-point spread.

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The Rams had a post-game win expectancy of 92% in their 24-21 loss to Vanderbilt last Saturday night in Fort Collins. They probably didn’t outplay Vanderbilt enough to cover the seven they were favored by, but 14 points on seven scoring opportunities is suboptimal.

Colorado State nearly doubled Vanderbilt in projected points added per play and completely stuffed the Vandy run game.

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Rams Offense

The Rams’ offense raced out to a 14-0 lead quickly on the Commodores last week before stalling out numerous times in the next three quarters.

CSU found the late offense to tie the game and nearly get to overtime, but it was more finishing drives and special teams that cost CSU in the game than offensive execution between the 20s.

CSU’s offense has had plenty of rushing and passing success against mediocre competition, and while Toledo is the best team they’ve faced, the Rams’ pace on offense is fourth fastest in the country.

They have offensive success advantages in our matchup matrix in both Rushing and Passing Success Rate.

While the explosiveness edge may be skewed by opponent, Colorado State’s offense created plenty of big plays against Mountain West opponents last year, too.

Only two points per scoring opportunity is a worry, but we need a bigger sample size to judge the Rams’ ability to finish drives.

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Rams Defense

Vanderbilt isn’t a good rushing offense, but they were still stuffed on 30% of rushes last Saturday in Fort Collins. Vandy had 2.4 line yards per rush and created next to nothing at the second level.

CSU has statistical advantages in both Rushing and Passing Success rate over the Toledo defense that could help them overcome Toledo’s offensive explosiveness edge.

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Toledo is rated No. 63 in our Action Network power ratings and while they didn’t deserve to win, they clearly didn’t receive enough respect in the market against Notre Dame last week.

The letdown of losing that game close — along with the sandwich spot of an upcoming game with Ball State — weighs in here.

The Rockets desire to get a margin against the Rams — if the opportunity presented itself — is in question.

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Rockets Offense

Through two games, Toledo has been able to do very little on the ground to generate offense. The Rockets rank 112th in Rushing Success Rate and 111th in Line Yards. Toledo sits at 101st in Havoc allowed on offense and had just a 14.5% Rushing Success Rate against the Fighting Irish in its Week 2 game.

The Rams aren’t quite as stout up front, but they did shut down Vanderbilt.

The Rams are top 31 in both Line Yards and Rushing Success Rate allowed, which could force the Rockets to the air.

Toledo should be able to break off some big plays on a porous Rams’ secondary, but the Rockets’ ability to move the chains consistently could be challenged in this game.

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Rockets Defense

Toledo’s passing defense really struggled to stop Jack Coan and the Fighting Irish attack when it really counted on Saturday. ND had a 46% success rate on passing downs as the Rockets struggled to stay off the field.

That’s a major issue given the Rams’ offensive pace. If the Rams are allowed to continue to move the chains, Toledo’s defense could wear down as this game progresses.

Toledo’s best chance at defensive success comes through creating Havoc and a pass rush, where it has a statistical advantage over the Rams. But if CSU establishes a run game and keeps the chains moving, that pass rush could wear down later in the game.

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Colorado State vs. Toledo Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Colorado State and Toledo match up statistically:

Colorado State Offense vs. Toledo Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	23	49
Line Yards	15	16
Pass Success	63	118
Pass Blocking*	71	38
Big Play	69	87
Havoc	26	6
Finishing Drives	119	17
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Toledo Offense vs. Colorado State Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	112	13
Line Yards	111	31
Pass Success	102	54
Pass Blocking*	29	78
Big Play	27	107
Havoc	101	121
Finishing Drives	55	67
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	105	28
PFF Coverage	106	33
Middle 8	119	3
SP+ Special Teams	111	42
Plays per Minute	4	94
Rush Rate	45.6% (110)	58.3% (47)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.

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Colorado State vs. Toledo Betting Pick

This is a bad lookahead spot for Toledo with rival Ball State up next. The Rockets just had the near upset-of-the-year at Notre Dame and now have to get up for a game as two touchdown favorites.

Colorado State is unfortunate to be 0-2 at this point in the season, but it made significant improvements from Week 1 to Week 2.

Given some of the Rams’ statistical advantages, the Rockets might grab an early lead. However, the backdoor will be wide open for the Rams’ fast-paced offense and underrated rushing attack.

Back the Rams to stay inside the two touchdown spread late.

Pick: Colorado State +14

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