Photo by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jah-Marien Latham (93) of the Alabama Crimson Tide
And just like that we’re on to college football Week 3.
I say this often, but it bears repeating: Winning bets on a slate’s smallest (or least popular) games pay just the same as those on high-profile matchups, and often you’ll see significant odds movement on those less popular matchups.
However, sometimes the stars align, and it’s the big programs also showing as the best bets on a given slate, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing for Saturday’s Week 3 schedule.
With this in mind, let’s detail Saturday’s three sharpest college football spreads, including:
- Michigan State vs. Miami (12 p.m. ET)
- Alabama vs. Florida (3:30 p.m. ET)
- USC vs. Washington State (3:30 p.m. ET)
College Football Week 3 Sharp Betting Picks
*Odds as of Friday afternoon
Michigan State vs. Miami Betting Pick
12 p.m. ET | ABC
Sharp Action
Ladies and gentleman, we have a contrarian favorite for Saturday’s college football slate!
While the public — 76% of tickets have landed on underdog Michigan State thus far — sharps have been quietly backing Miami in this matchup.
Back on Monday this spread dipped to Hurricanes -5.5, and that’s exactly when the pros pounced.
Since then we’ve tracked three separate waves of Miami money hitting the market, driving this spread up to a consensus of -6.5 across the market.
PRO Systems
With recreational bettors falling over themselves to take the points in this game, Miami is a match for The Action Network’s Bet Against Public With Line Move PRO Betting System, which has produced a 178-128-7 (58%) against-the-spread (ATS) record since 2005 by identifying teams getting very little public love in heavily-bet games.
Model Projection
Not only is Miami in a profitable spot historically, it’s also showing plenty of spread value per our College Football PRO Projections.
Our model projects the Michigan State vs. Miami spread at Hurricanes -11.7, a 6.9% edge when compared to the consensus of -6.5, which is the second-biggest edge of Saturday’s entire slate of games.
Top Experts
Three of our college football experts are putting their money where their mouths are by laying the number with Miami at home.
PRO Report Pick: Miami -6.5
_PromoID=[5822,4751,4776,5836]
Alabama vs. Florida Betting Pick
3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Sharp Action
As recently as Tuesday Alabama sat as a 15.5-point favorite over Florida, but apparently that was too many points for the pros.
Wiseguy action showed up to take the Gators at that price, kicking this spread down to +14.5.
Big Money
72% of bettors are happily backing Nick Saban to cover this number, yet 60% of the money wagered on the spread has landed on Florida.
A bets-vs.-dollars discrepancy this vast rings alarm bells of a potentially massive showdown between sharp and public bettors.
PRO Systems
Florida is a match for the same Bet Against Public With Line Move PRO System detailed in the game above, meaning it’s another opportunity to get down on a team showing contrarian value.
Top Experts
Two more of The Action Network’s experts have piled on the Gators in this matchup, expecting Dan Mullen and Company to keep this game within two touchdowns at home.
PRO Report Pick: Florida +14.5
_PromoID=[6275,5649,5089]
USC vs. Washington State Betting Pick
3:30 p.m. ET | FOX
Sharp Action
At one point, the USC vs. Washington State spread hit a full 10 points at DraftKings Sportsbook.
That number is now down to Trojans -7 and yup, you guessed it, sharp bettors are the reason.
Pros have consistently chopped this line down in three separate waves, resulting in the massive drop we’ve seen thus far.
Big Money
This is pretty crazy.
Washington State has received just 36% of the bets on the spread, yet those tickets represent a whopping 70% of the money.
What causes lines to move from +10 to +7? The betting trends data in the sentence above is surely playing a part.
Model Projection
DraftKings has pushed its USC vs. Washington State spread to 7, but the consensus line is still 7.5.
We project this line at Cougars +5.5, which results in a 3.2% edge for bettors by getting through the key numbers of +6 and +7 and locking in +7.5.
Top Experts
And what is becoming a theme for Saturday’s college football Week 3 slate, our experts are aligned with the sharps once again and taking Washington State and the points.
PRO Report Pick: Washington State +7.5
_PromoID=[4287,4451,5836]