Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Mac Jones
Ohio State vs. Alabama Odds
| Ohio State Odds | +9 |
| Alabama Odds | -9 |
| Over/Under | 75 |
| PRO Projection | BAMA -5 | O/U: 75 |
| Time | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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For the first time in the College Football Playoff era, a national championship game spread will (probably) close greater than a full touchdown.
Alabama is a 9-point favorite across much of the market as of Monday morning, which is significant given that it means Ohio State would cover even in the case of a loss by a touchdown.
But Bama was always quite that big a favorite. Opening numbers came in closer to the key number, with most books releasing a 7-point spread, and some of the earliest to market even breaking in at -6.5.
Those didn’t last very long, though, thanks in part to the action from sharp bettors.
Ohio State vs. Alabama Sharp Action
As of Monday morning, the distribution across the betting public has been fairly even, with Alabama holding just a 53% to 47% edge in terms of spread tickets. All else equal, that would give no reason for a line move, but obviously that’s not been the case.
Instead, the 53% of bets on Alabama have generated 68% of the actual money hitting this spread.
Of course that puts a monetary liability on the favorite for which sportsbooks need to account, but perhaps more importantly, the discrepancy between bets and dollars reveals Bama to be receiving the bigger wagers — the ones more likely to come from sharps.
Confirming that indication, three Bet Signals from Action Labs — indicators of market-wide line moves caused specifically by sharp action — have been triggered on Alabama (at -7.5 and -8.5). And as of this morning, no such signals have reported professional action going the other way.
