College Football Odds & Picks for North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech: Which Side of the Spread to Bet

North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech Odds

North Carolina Odds	-12.5 (-105)
Georgia Tech Odds	+12.5 (-115)
Moneyline	-475 / +350
Over/Under	63 (-115 / -105)
Time	7:30 p.m. ET
TV	ACCN
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

A Georgia Tech program that lost outright as three-score favorites to NIU in Week 1 nearly gave Clemson a scare in its own building last weekend.

Anything’s on the table this weekend in a neutral-site ACC clash against a North Carolina offense quickly finding its footing.

The Tar Heels have bounced back in a big way since their upset loss to Virginia Tech in the opener. They’ve scored 59 points in back-to-back weeks, naturally covering in both games.

Georgia Tech’s defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed last season as it allowed close to 37 points per game. However, only 12 teams in the country have allowed explosive plays at a lower rate than the Yellow Jackets this season.

Enter quarterback Sam Howell, who’s more than up for the challenge.

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North Carolina Offense

Georgia State and Virginia stood no chance against the aerial assault. Howell cut ’em up for a combined 659 yards and eight passing scores, reminding the nation why he was 14-1 to win the Heisman entering the regular season.

Clemson wanted to wear Georgia Tech down last week, posting a 33.3% Methodical Drive rate (the national average is just 14.3%).

The Tar Heels, however, will not be as lenient; they’re fourth nationally in Big Play rate and have nine touchdowns of 20-plus yards through three games.

Wide receiver Josh Downs has been the catalyst, registering 24 catches, 399 yards and four scores.

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North Carolina Defense

Virginia Tech preferred to play keep-away and Georgia State never stood a chance after going down early. Cavaliers QB Brennan Armstrong finally exposed the Tar Heels, racking up 554 yards and four scores through the air.

That won’t inspire confidence when North Carolina draws the likes of pass-happy Miami, Wake Forest and Pitt down the stretch. But in Week 4, the Tar Heels get a chance to catch their breath.

Statistically, this is the worst offense they’ll draw. Georgia Tech ranks 90th in SP+ offense, well behind Virginia Tech (34th), Virginia (36th) and Georgia State (60th).

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Georgia Tech Offense

The offense was overhauled following Paul Johnson’s triple-option attack. It’s still a work in progress for Geoff Collins, but there’s momentum nonetheless.

Quarterback Jordan Yates has five touchdowns and zero interceptions this season. He was a non-factor last weekend against Clemson, as the Yellow Jackets dialed up 39 rushes. They’re running the ball on more than 60% of plays, which ranks 34th in rush-play frequency.

The only problem is Georgia Tech isn’t getting anywhere.

After registering just 2.7 yards per carry against the Tigers, the offense ranks 120th in Rushing Success. When it does string together solid drives, the unit is struggling to tie the bow, sitting 100th in Finishing Drives.

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Georgia Tech Defense

The defense has been great on a down-to-down basis, but the key here is how it performs against an offense that can score before you blink.

Part of the reason Georgia Tech’s been so stout against the pass is it has yet to see a potent unit — and that includes Clemson.

North Carolina’s kryptonite — as we saw in Week 1 — is a front that can rush the passer and create chaos. Georgia Tech, however, ranks just 108th in Havoc and has only recorded two sacks this fall.

If you let Howell operate behind an offensive line that returned everyone from last year, the Tar Heels will build an early double-digit lead, as they have each of the last two weeks against incompetent defenses.

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North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how North Carolina and Georgia Tech match up statistically:

North Carolina Offense vs. Georgia Tech Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	15	53
Line Yards	6	38
Pass Success	32	12
Pass Blocking**	57	37
Big Play	4	13
Havoc	71	108
Finishing Drives	44	18
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Georgia Tech Offense vs. North Carolina Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	120	91
Line Yards	58	19
Pass Success	45	95
Pass Blocking**	42	93
Big Play	68	78
Havoc	47	107
Finishing Drives	100	82
**Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	89	45
PFF Coverage	121	70
Middle 8	108	7
SP+ Special Teams	65	110
Plays per Minute	32	30
Rush Rate	57.9% (49)	60.8% (34)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.

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North Carolina vs. Georgia Tech Betting Pick

This is a cheap price to play on the Tar Heels and one we probably don’t get if UNC had entered this game undefeated.

Virginia Tech, in hindsight, was a terrible draw for North Carolina. It was the first road game in over a year, with sauced-up fans, against a defensive-minded coach with oodles of time to prepare.

We saw the last two weeks just how dangerous the Tar Heels are under cool, calm conditions, evidenced by near back-to-back 60-point outings.

Georgia Tech was content playing a rock fight last week against Clemson, which doesn’t appear to have an offense this season.

The Yellow Jackets are simply outmatched athletically, and they don’t have enough firepower to hang with a red-hot Tar Heels offense.

Lay the chalk.

Pick: North Carolina -12.5 (Play to -14 at +100)

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