College Football Odds & Pick for Texas A&M vs. Colorado: Bet the Buffs at Home? (Saturday, September 11)

Texas A&M vs. Colorado Odds

The Aggies will travel to Denver to take on Colorado in a meeting between two former Big 12 teams at Mile High Stadium.

It’s been more than a decade since these two teams last met, and while Colorado leads the series 6-3, it’s no stretch to say Texas A&M has made considerable leaps ahead of Colorado since they both departed their former conference.

Before last season’s 4-2 finish, the Buffaloes had just one winning season since 2006. Both are coming off a convincing Week 1 win, but each team showed a potential weakness: if they can’t adjust this week, it may cost them the game in this reunion…

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Texas A&M and specifically Jimbo Fisher have historically done well in non-conference and neutral site games. A&M is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 non-conference games and Fisher is 5-0 on neutral fields.

But it’s not all good History; the Aggies have found themselves in trouble in most of their previous trips to Colorado. Most recently, the Aggies were outscored 35-13 in the second half to fall 35-34 in 2009. They were able to cover the nearly 30 point spread in Week 1, but if you watched the game, there were some concerns for anyone looking to bet A&M the rest of the year.

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Aggies Offense

After a slow first half where the Aggies scored just 10 points, the Aggies and freshman quarterback Haynes King settled down and beat Kent State 41-10.  King connected on 21/33 with 292 yards passing and two touchdowns. He finished with a QBR of 48.5 as he also threw three interceptions.

If King can limit his turnovers, he should have a better performance against this Colorado secondary which allowed almost 250 passing yards to Northern Colorado.

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Aggies Defense

The Aggies’ defense shut down Kent State’s passing game last Saturday, but they struggled against the run. The Golden Flashes totaled 226 rushing yards.

If they want to beat Colorado, the front seven for Texas A&M has to tighten up. However, they have an elite secondary and should be able to limit Brendon Lewis in the passing game. If Texas A&M lets Broussard and Colorado’s offensive line dominate the line of scrimmage, the Aggies could be on upset alert.

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In Karl Dorrell’s first year as head coach in 2020, the Buffaloes finished with a 4-2 record as they were led by a dominant ground game that averaged 212 rushing yards per game. They picked up right where they left off in Week 1 and will look to do the same this week against the Aggies at Mile High.

However, it’s hard to forget what happened last year when this Colorado team had their first non-conference game. In the Alamo Bowl, Texas curbstomped the Buffaloes 55-23. Will this be another harsh reminder that the Buffaloes are not yet ready for the next level of competition?

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Buffaloes Offense

Colorado ran the ball nearly 50 times in their opener, accumulating 295 yards and four touchdowns on the ground en route to a 35-7 win over Northern Colorado. Tailback Jarek Broussard led the team with 94 rushing yards on just nine attempts and will be dangerous against the A&M defense.

The Buffaloes did take some time to find their footing in the first half last week, but sticking to their dominant run game helped them find their way. Freshman Quarterback Brendon Lewis also got his first career start out of the way.

While he only attempted 15 passes, he completed 10 of them, didn’t make any mistakes, and didn’t show too much for future opponents. It was a decent start for the freshman, but unfortunately, there isn’t much to take away from it.

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Buffaloes Defense

Last week the Buffaloes limited Northern Colorado to a total of 14 rushing yards and tallied six tackles for loss. Colorado has one of the better run defenses in the Pac-12, along with enough pass rush to bother A&M QB Haynes King to pressure him into mistakes.

However, they did allow Northern Colorado to throw for nearly 250 yards; if they give that kind of opportunity to A&M, the outcome could be a lot worse.

Another major factor for this buffaloes team will be penalties. In Week 1, Colorado was committed 12 penalties for a total of 117 yards (four of those fouls were for unsportsmanlike conduct). Colorado cannot make careless mistakes in a game against a power-five opponent as strong as A&M if they want to win.

Texas A&M vs. Colorado Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Texas A&M and Colorado match up statistically:

Texas A&M Offense vs. Colorado Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rushing Success	9	11
Passing Success	18	17
Havoc	8	16
Line Yards	44	15
Sack Rate	5	60
Finishing Drives	39	30

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Colorado Offense vs. Texas A&M Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rushing Success	76	23
Passing Success	104	42
Havoc	53	35
Line Yards	101	51
Sack Rate	12	16
Finishing Drives	100	61

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	56	95
Coverage	9	82
Rush Rate	55.5% (59)	60.8% (22)
Seconds per Play	122	44
Special Teams SP+	43	93

Data via College Football Data (CFBD) and FootballOutsiders; SP+ projection per ESPN.

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Texas A&M vs. Colorado Betting Pick

The spread for this game opened at +13.5 and quickly ballooned up to +16.5. It got as high as +17.5 before settling back at 17.

I do believe A&M is good enough that they will be able to fix the problems they had in Week 1, but not on both sides of the ball in six days. This is why I feel comfortable backing the Buffaloes.

King might limit his turnovers or the defense may limit the Buffaloes run game, but one of them will have mistakes that keep this game closer than 17 points. This is also a key number that I would not bet below 17.

Pick: Colorado +17 or better

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