David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Notre Dame Fighting Irish wide receiver Joe Wilkins Jr.
The first full week of college football action is in the books, including a handful of high-profile matchups like Miami vs. Alabama, Georgia vs. Clemson and Notre Dame vs. Florida State.
However, despite there being just one real week of games (sorry Week 0), casual bettors will overreact to these results.
Go ahead and give Alabama the national title! Clemson is done! Appalachian State is a College Football Playoff contender!
Sorry, that last one was me…
While these opinions certainly make for fun barroom banter and much less interesting mainstream media talking points, they can also have an effect on college football betting odds.
Teams are rarely as good or as bad as they look in a single game, especially a season-opener, but the public will bet these teams as if that one result is gospel.
This, in turn, leads to value for those willing to keep those overreactions at bay and continue to bet objectively.
Our College Football PRO Report is 100% data-driven, meaning it can’t fall victim to emotion, which is one of the many reasons why it’s such a valuable tool for bettors.
And with Saturday’s college football Week 2 slate nearly upon us, here are the four of the weekend’s smartest college football wagers, including the sides that sharps are slamming, historically-profitable systems and the betting model edges popping with value.
College Football Sharp Betting Picks
*Odds as of Friday morning
South Carolina vs. East Carolina
12 p.m. ET | ESPN2
Right out of the chute we get Saturday’s biggest betting model edge.
According to The Action Network’s College Football PRO Projections, East Carolina should be a 4.4-point favorite against South Carolina.
However, you can see from the latest college football Week 1 odds that the Gamecocks are actually 2-point favorites in this matchup.
The difference between the Pirates’ projected spread of -4.4 and the current line of +2 results in a monster 16.3% edge, earning an A-plus grade from our PRO Projections feature.
PRO Report Pick: East Carolina +2
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Toledo vs. Notre Dame
2:30 p.m. ET | Peacock
Sharp Action
Like because Notre Dame needed overtime to squeak by Florida State on Sunday, bettors with the resources to move college football lines quickly jumped on Toledo earlier this week, steaming the Rockets at both +18.5 and +18, resulting into the current consensus of +17.
Model Projection
While not the biggest edge of Week 2 (which we detailed above), Toledo is still commanding a 5.7% edge even after the movement down to +17 when compared to our projection of Rockets +10.3.
Top Experts
Our experts have followed along throughout the week as well, with four(!) of The Action Network’s top college football bettors taking Toledo and the points against Notre Dame.
PRO Report Pick: Toledo +17
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Air Force vs. Navy
3:30 p.m. ET | CBS
Sharp Action
Most bettors are aware of the “service academy under” trend and are clearly taking advantage of it considering the drop in the Air Force vs. Navy total from 44.5 to 40.5.
In addition, wiseguys are also paying plenty of attention to the spread.
At one point this number floated to Navy +7.5 at BetMGM and that’s when sharps decided it was time to pounce.
Action Labs’ Bet Signals are reporting three separate instances of smart money flowing on Navy, pushing this spread down to +6 at most shops across the market.
Big Money
Where’s the sharp line movement there’s often big bets and that’s exactly what we’re seeing with Air Force vs. Navy.
The Midshipmen have attracted 55% of the money wagered on just 33% of the tickets, which leaves little doubt regarding where the biggest bets are landing in this game.
Model Projection
As I detailed above, this line has already moved through the key number of 7 to 6 (another important number in college football betting) and our PRO Projections are still lighting up Navy +6 as a 12.9% edge — the third-best of Saturday’s slate.
PRO Report Pick: Navy +6
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Liberty vs. Troy
7 p.m. ET | ESPN+
Sharp Action
Liberty vs. Troy is your official college football Week 2 “random sharp action alert!”
Troy opened as a 6-point underdog against Liberty at DraftKings Sportsbook and is receiving a paltry 29% of the bets, yet this line has dropped to a consensus of +4.5, with some shops down to +4 as well.
Yes, you can thank seven separate waves of wiseguy action for this movement thus far.
Big Money
While 71% of tickets are laying the points with Liberty, 71% of the loot is backing Troy, providing us with another key data point as to why this line has the moved the way it has throughout the week.
Model Projection
Pros have certainly locked in the most line value with Troy already, but our model still sees enough meat left on that bone to result in a 3.5% edge for those wanting to tail the sharps in this matchup.
Top Experts
We have one college football riding with the wiseguys here, aligning four of the possible five PRO Report value indicators with the Trojans.
PRO Report Pick: Troy +4.5
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