Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama Crimson Tide guard John Petty Jr. (23).
Saturday’s college basketball card features a number of high-profile games — especially many of the non-conference matchups in the 2021 SEC/Big 12 Challenge.
In this article, I’ll focus on betting the noon and early-afternoon tipoffs for Saturday’s college basketball slate. I’ll have something shortly on the late afternoon and evening slates, but Iwanted to share my thoughts on the early tips as soon as possible.
You can check out all of my bets on the Action App — where you’ll also find my projections for every game.
Noon Tips
Alabama at Oklahoma
Oklahoma hosts Alabama (+1) in a battle of two teams with plenty of momentum. The Sooners no doubt have an excellent offense but have struggled in one key area on the other side of the ball: Perimeter defense. They rank 264th in 3P% allowed and give up a ton of looks from beyond the arc.
It’s not flukey either, as head coach Lon Kruger has his guards sag frequently to make up for some of their deficiencies on the perimeter. That could spell doom against an Alabama team that bombs away from deep as much as any team in the country.
The Tide have struggled from deep during the past two games, but they have compensated with stellar defense. Alabama now ranks 8th nationally in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, per KenPom.
Photo: Andy Lyons/Getty Images.
Tulsa at East Carolina
Speaking of bad matchups, East Carolina (+3) does not have an ideal one at home against Tulsa’s zone defense. Per Synergy, the Pirates rank in the 16th percentile against zones, which they’ve seen 26.4% of the time. They just have a horrid zone offense — in part due to their lack of shooters. There’s a reason why Tulsa won both meetings with ease last year.
ECU also hasn’t been great defending the pick and roll, which could pose problems against the Golden Hurricane.
Photo: Greg Thompson/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
Texas A&M at Kansas State
If you have the stones, this is the ultimate buy low spot on Kansas State (+2). The Wildcats are coming off an embarrassing 48-point loss at the hands of Baylor to close out a streak of six straight games against teams I have power rated in the top 30 in the country.
If there was ever a pride spot, this is it. The problem is: Kansas State can’t shoot and turns it over a ton. That’s problematic against a Texas A&M team that plays a tough matchup zone and throws in a good bit of press.
The Aggies are turning teams over at a top-15 clip nationally, while Kansas State’s offense ranks an abysmal 320nd in turnover percentage. That said, Texas A&M’s absolutely dreadful offense actually ranks worse in that category.
Believe it or not, I actually make Kansas State a tiny fractional favorite.
Photo: Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
Clemson at Duke
I’m not sure I have the desire to back the disgusting Clemson (+5) offense after what I’ve watched recently, but there is value in +5 or better at Duke.
The Blue Devils continue to be overvalued in the market on name recognition alone. They needed an absolute miracle cover last time out against Georgia Tech to move to 2-8 ATS.
This Duke team is just so young and so soft. Clemson is neither of those things.
Photo: Michael Wade/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
Loyola Maryland at Navy
I will be backing Loyola Maryland (+5) at Navy. The Greyhounds started late this season with their first game coming on Jan. 16. They’ve started out 0-4, but have losing point-margins of 2, 2, 1 and 2 (in triple OT) even with horrific shooting luck.
They likely now have their legs underneath them and should have a good shot at beating a Navy team that has had its fair share of fortune en route to a 10-2 start. In fact, per KenPom, the Midshipmen are the luckiest team in all of college basketball to date.
I think the Midshipmen have been playing over their heads and have no issues backing my guy Santi Aldama.
Photo: Mitchell Layton/Getty Images
Long Layoffs
Teams that have had long layoffs have been absolutely awful against the spread this season. Per ActionLabs, teams with 14 or more days off between games have gone 47-64-3 (42.3%), failing to cover by an average of 2 points per game.
The numbers get even worse (with a smaller sample size, of course) the longer the break. The rust is real, and conditioning is certainly a concern.
A team coming off of a Covid pause has an additional 2.3 point disadvantage on average so far this season, in a normal tempo game.
The longer the pause, the greater the disadvantage.
14 day pause is worth about a 0.5 point disadvantage.
21 day: 2.3 points
28 day: 4.0 points pic.twitter.com/eU72XmuWqq— Evan Miyakawa (@evanmiya) January 29, 2021
This applies to quite a few clubs in action this afternoon:
- Elon (+5.5 at Delaware) hasn’t played since Jan. 3
- Georgetown (+3 vs. Providence) will give it a go for the first time since Jan. 9
- Xavier (-1 at Butler) last suited up on Jan. 10
The sample size isn’t enormous, but the results have been glaring. The logic also makes sense.
However, don’t just assume this trend will remain a cash cow. Markets do adjust. For example, we’ve already seen Delaware move from a 3-point favorite out to a 5.5-point favorite overnight.
Ugly Dog: Western Kentucky at Miami (OH)
The ugliest dog I’m considering for the early afternoon slate is Western Michigan (+9.5). The Broncos have been nothing short of a disaster on both ends of the floor this season, but they’ve been missing three key pieces of late due to COVID-19 contact tracing protocols.
One of the trickiest parts about ‘capping this season is determining who is in the lineup and who is not. It seems as if the timelines differ on a school-to-school basis.
I’m making an assumption here that B Artis White, Rafael Cruz and Titus Wright will all return for WMU today. If that’s the case, I see value in the road dog at +9.5.
It is also a potential sleepy spot for Miami (OH). The Redhawks may come out a little flat for the hapless Broncos in a game that is sandwiched in between Toledo and Kent State. The Redhawks guards also have a bit of shooting regression coming their way based on their historical splits.
It’s one of those bets that will require you to hold your nose.
Photo: Zach Bolinger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
