Houston vs. UCF Odds

The sixth-ranked Houston Cougars look to remain unbeaten on Saturday when they head to Orlando to take on upset-minded UCF.

Not only does Kelvin Sampson have one of the best teams in the AAC, but Houston is one of the top sides in the country. With four starters returning from a squad that finished 14th in the final KenPom Rankings of 2019/20, the Cougars are poised for a deep run in March.

Houston passed its first test by beating Texas on a neutral court, but this will be its first big hurdle on the road.

UCF has played a gauntlet of a schedule so far, but has pulled off upsets at almost every stop. The Golden Knights already have wins over Auburn, Florida State and Cincinnati. Johnny Dawkins’ squad looks poised for a bounce-back season in 2020/21.

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Houston Cougars

Houston is solid at both ends of the floor. With so much experience on the roster, the Cougars have grown into a complete team and are ranked inside the top-15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Sampson preaches how important the defensive side of the ball is in modern basketball and has the Cougars playing like one of the stingiest units in the nation. Houston is inside the top-15 in effective field goal percentage allowed, turnover percentage and 3-point percentage allowed. That’s going to come in handy against a UCF offense that takes care of the ball and shoots a high percentage from behind the arc.

The Cougars are fundamentally sound on offense, rarely turning the ball over and grabbing offensive rebounds at a ridiculous 43% clip, which is the second-best mark in the country. UCF is 304th in defensive rebounding percentage, so it’s hard to imagine they’ll be able to keep the Cougars off the glass.

UCF Knights

Last season was a rough one for UCF, but that isn’t surprising for a team that lost all five starters from the previous season. This campaign figures to be a better one for the Golden Knights as Johnny Dawkins has a lot more talent on his roster, like all-conference forward Collin Smith, who led UCF in scoring last season.

That said, the Golden Knights have struggled this season offensively and have relied heavily on the three ball. UCF shoots 37.5% from distance, but only 43.9% from inside the arc. The Golden Knights truly live and die by the three. On paper, Houston is a terrible matchup for UCF’s offense since the Cougars are one of the best teams in the country at defending the three.

UCF is very opportunistic on defense and rank inside the top-100 in turnover percentage and defending the 3-point shot. However, the Knights struggle against teams with dominant front courts, as they are well below the NCAA average in 2-point percentage allowed and defensive rebound percentage.

Considering how dominant the Cougars have been on the offensive glass, the Knights are likely going to struggle to contain Houston’s front court.

Betting Analysis & Pick

There’s a good recipe for the Under in this matchup. UCF and Houston play at a slower pace than the NCAA average, plus I think the Golden Knights will have trouble scoring at a consistent rate against this type of defense.

On the flip side, Houston doesn’t shoot a very high percentage from the floor, and relying on offensive rebounds and second-chance points is something that is not sustainable.

I project this Over/Under at 133.79 points, so I think there’s a smidge of value left on Under 136. I wouldn’t go any lower than that, though.

Pick: Under 136 (-112)