Duke vs. Notre Dame Odds

The ACC looks wide open this season.

Clemson is 5-0 with one of the best defenses in college basketball, Syracuse, Louisville, North Carolina and Virginia Tech all have four wins. Plus, Florida State and N.C. State are both 3-0.

Meanwhile, Duke is 2-2 with two unimpressive wins and two unimpressive losses. Mike Krzyzewski’s team is looking inexperienced and uninspired.

Notre Dame also enters this game 2-2. However, they just pulled off a road upset victory over Kentucky. Kentucky may only be 1-4 this season, but that doesn’t make Notre Dame’s victory less impressive.

This line opened with Duke as 3.5-point favorites, so the Blue Devils have taken some early money. While betting against Duke is always daunting, there looks like there could be some value backing the home underdog on Wednesday night.

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Duke Blue Devils

What is happening in Durham this season?

Duke is 0-4 against the spread (ATS), they beat Coppin State by just 10 points in their home opener and they lost as home favorites to both Illinois and Michigan State.

KenPom has the Blue Devils as a top-20 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. However, I don’t understand why.

Offensively, they boast just the 125th-best eFG% in the nation, are only shooting 32.7% from 3-point range, 65.6% from the free-throw line and have an assist-to-turnover ratio of .98.

Defensively, the Blue Devils are allowing 70.8 points against per game (184th in the country) with a 48.5 eFG% against (136th in the country). Teams are shooting almost 20 three-pointers per game against them and they are converting those shots at a 33.3% clip.

To make matters worse, their best player, freshman forward Jalen Johnson, won’t be playing due to a foot injury. For Duke to beat Notre Dame, it’ll need efficient production from Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

Notre Dame’s win against Kentucky was impressive, but not infallible.

At the 10-minute mark of the first half, Notre Dame was leading Kentucky 31-9. After entering halftime with a 22-point lead, the largest halftime deficit ever for Kentucky at Rupp Arena, the Fighting Irish got outscored 37-16 in the second half. They managed to squeak out a 64-63 victory by producing 12 FTAs to Kentucky’s six.

Notre Dame’s two losses came against two great Big Ten teams in Michigan State and Ohio State. However, the Irish played well in both, scoring 70 in the 10-point loss to Michigan State and 85 in the five-point loss to Ohio State.

Notre Dame can score in bunches because they shoot the 3 well. The Irish attempt 22.3 three-pointers per game and make 41.6% of them, which is 17th-best in the country.

Two areas where Notre Dame has an advantage over Duke are height and experience. Notre Dame’s average player height of 78.7″ is seventh in the country, and their starting lineup features four juniors and one senior. Meanwhile, Duke will be starting three freshmen and two sophomores on the road tonight.

Notre Dame’s unquestioned leader is junior point guard Prentiss Hubb, who is averaging 21.3 points and 4.3 assists per game on 40.3% shooting. Hubb scored 18 points on 8-for-17 from the field in the win over Kentucky.

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Betting Analysis & Pick

Duke is overvalued in this game.

The 2-2 Blue Devils are laying 3.5 points in a road conference game without their best player. Duke’s small, young lineup are traveling to play a bigger, more-experienced team. Coach K’s résumé is the only reason they are favored in this game. Since 2012/13, the Blue Devils are just 25-33 ATS as a road favorite, including a 1-7 ATS mark in their last eight contests in this spot.

Honestly, I would project this game closer to a pick-em. Therefore, I’ll be playing Notre Dame +4 and would play it down to +2.5.

Pick: Notre Dame +4 (-110). Play down to +2.5.