Rich Graessle/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jay Wright
Butler vs. Villanova Odds
| Butler Odds | +11.5 [BET NOW] |
| Villanova Odds | -11.5 [BET NOW] |
| Moneyline | +550/-800 [BET NOW] |
| Over/Under | 131.5 [BET NOW] |
| Time | Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET |
| TV | Fox Sports 1 |
| Odds as of 8 p.m. ET and via BetMGM. | |
The Butler Bulldogs (1-0) face the No. 7 Villanova Wildcats (5-1) in an early Big East battle in Philadelphia at 7 p.m. ET Wednesday.
The Bulldogs have played just one game, a 66-62 win over Western Michigan, heading into their Big East opener, while the Wildcats are finding their form after some challenging non-conference matchups.
Villanova has played five of its six games against teams in the Ken Pom’s Top 100, with its most impressive win coming 10 days ago against Texas, 68-64.
While the Bulldogs should be a good team that won’t beat itself, the Wildcats are in rhythm and should pull away to win comfortably at home.
Butler Bulldogs
While Butler doesn’t have much of a sample size to draw conclusions from, the Bulldogs figure to have some similar strengths as recent Butler teams: limiting turnovers, not allowing second-chance points and playing great defense.
The Bulldogs have finished in the top 50 in lowest turnover percentage in college basketball five of the last six seasons, and they rank first in the country in turnover percentage after their lone game this year. The Bulldogs also have done a nice job historically of limiting opposing offensive rebounds, and they also rank first in the nation in opponent rebound percentage after allowing Western Michigan just a single offensive board.
The Butler defense has also finished as one of Ken Pom’s top-50 most efficient defenses in seven of the last 10 seasons and the Bulldogs rank 57th in adjusted defensive efficiency after one game this year.
Butler lost 62.9% of its scoring from last year, including its two double-digit per game scorers, Kamar Baldwin (16.2 points per game) and Sean McDermott (11.2 ppg). The Bulldogs rank 226th in minutes continuity from last year, but senior point guard Aaron Thompson has stepped his game up to try and make up for their absence on offense.
Thompson was second in the Big East in assist/turnover ratio (2.5) and fourth in assists per game (4.7) last year. In Butler’s opener, Thompson scored 21 points while going 6-for-9 from the field with two rebounds, two steals, four assists and just one turnover.
Thompson’s 143.1 offensive rating ranks 51st out of 2024 players eligible nationally. Thompson also is an elite defender as he was named one of 10 semifinalists for last year’s Naismith Men’s Defensive Player of the Year Award. If Butler covers or wins against Villanova, it will need a good-to-great game from Thompson.
Butler’s supporting cast also needs to be efficient to pull the upset. Butler also got 15 points and nine rebounds in its previous game from South Carolina graduate transfer guard Jair Bolden, who set a career high for rebounds in his 98th college game.
Bryce Nze, a preseason All-Big East Second Team member, is the Bulldogs’ leading returning scorer (9.2 points per game). He also led the team with 6.6 rebounds per game (sixth in the Big East) in 2019/20.
Villanova Wildcats
Villanova should beat Butler at home, but the Wildcats will need to win on the boards if they hope to cover the 11.5-point spread.
When Villanova wins the rebounding battle, it is 4-0. But their lone loss came in a game where the Wildcats were out-rebounded by Virginia Tech.
The Hokies had a perfect storm performance when they out-rebounded Villanova, but also went 10-for-20 from beyond the arc. Rebounding will be key against a stingy Butler defense that doesn’t allow many easy buckets historically.
Villanova has been elite offensively and great all around as it sits third in the Ken Pom’s rankings. Villanova is fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency, and the Wildcat defense has been solid as it ranks 27th in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are an experienced squad who return almost everyone except first-rounder Saddiq Bey. Jay Wright’s squad ranks sixth in minutes continuity.
Villanova has been elite offensively because of its talent, depth and great coaching. Senior guard Collin Gillespie (15.2 points per game) and sophomore forward James Robinson-Earl (15.0) lead the team in scoring, but the Wildcats have six players who average more than 6.5 points per game.
Villanova doesn’t turn the ball over and it creates extra shots for their efficient shooting offense with Robinson-Earl and senior forward Jermaine Samuels on the boards. Jay Wright has done another spectacular job with this team which should contend for a third title in five tries.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Without much information on Butler, it’s hard to find much value on the board before the opening tip. Villanova should win comfortably, but I don’t love the idea of laying 11.5 points against a Butler team that won’t give away too many points in what should be a low-scoring game.
The Bulldogs should keep this game close for a good amount of the first half, and I like the value of live-betting the Wildcats should the line get below 6 points as long as the Wildcats are winning on the boards. If Butler is dominating the glass, I like them at +10 or better.
| [Bet now at BetMGM and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.] |