William Mancebo/Getty Images. Pictured, from left: Kessler Edwards (15) of Pepperdine and Jalen Suggs (1) of Gonzaga.
Okay, let’s move on to the afternoon and evening slate. I’ll quickly hit on seven games that caught my eye. As always, you can find my bets and projections for every game in the Action Network App.
Regression Looms
You can’t avoid the regression monster forever. Which teams could fall victim today?
Target Niagara (+3.5) Live vs. Monmouth | 4 p.m. ET on ESPN3
Monmouth is shooting nearly 40% from deep during conference play and holding opponents to under 30% from behind the arc. That won’t last forever.
I think Niagara (+3.5) is live here. I’ve also been impressed with the adjustments head coach Greg Paulus has made in the second game of these back-to-backs this season.
Back Bowling Green (+4) vs. Toledo | 5 p.m. ET on ESPN+
Toledo’s offense is tremendous, but its defense is not. Teams are eventually going to start hitting outside shots against the Rockets.
This is a perfect game for Trey Diggs to break out of his shooting slump for Bowling Green (+4). Justin Turner should also have his way in PnR.
I like the home dog in what should be an entertaining game from start to finish.
Fade Campbell (-7.5) vs. Charleston Southern | 5:30 p.m. ET
Similar to Monmouth, Campbell has shot close to 40% from beyond the arc and held opponents to under 30% in conference play. The regression monster looms for the Camels.
It’s been a season to forget for 1-14 Charleston Southern (+7.5), but more shots will eventually start falling. Despite not having a single conference win, the Bucs have been very competitive in the second game of back-to-backs — usually after getting blown out in the first game.
Last night, the Bucs only lost by 1 to Campbell. I think they can keep this close again.
Ugly Afternoon Dog
Idaho (+13) vs. Weber State | 3 p.m. ET
I can’t believe I’m actually typing this, but I bet Idaho +13. The Vandals are disturbingly bad, but I show value at this number. It could also be a flat spot for Weber State, which has a date with first place Montana State on deck.
Weber State also likely has some 3-point shooting regression coming its way on both ends of the floor. And for what it’s worth, Weber State has been much worse in the second game of these unique back-to-backs.
After blowing out Portland State by 28, the Wildcats lost outright two days later. The same thing happened against Southern Utah after a 24-point win.
I will almost certainly regret this less than 10 minutes into the game.
Quick Primetime Thoughts
Arizona State (-1.5) vs. Stanford | 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2
Stanford has picked up some very impressive wins without three key pieces, but I’m not sold they can do it for a third time in Tempe, AZ tonight. I took some Arizona State (-1.5).
Pepperdine (+22) vs. Gonzaga | 8 p.m. ET on ESPN
Right now, the scariest bet in college basketball is fading Gonzaga. That offense is beyond elite and can explode for a huge run in the blink of an eye. That said, I think Pepperdine (+22) is catching a few too many points here.
It’s even scarier considering the Waves have no problems playing fast, but I still reluctantly pulled the trigger. Hopefully, Colbey Ross can get us in the backdoor if needed late.
New Mexico State (+4) at Grand Canyon | 9 p.m. ET on ESPN3
Grand Canyon won its seventh straight last night over New Mexico State, but I have no issues fading the Antelopes tonight.
I still think New Mexico State (+4), which now has all of its key pieces back, is the class of the conference. I actually liked what I saw from the Aggies last night. They just happened to shoot 5-of-28 from 3.
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