Photo by Jamie Squire/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Mahomes #15 of the Kansas City Chiefs celebrates with Trey Smith #65
Chiefs vs. Ravens Odds
| Chiefs Odds | -3.5 |
| Ravens Odds | +3.5 |
| Over/Under | 54 |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 19 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
*Odds as of Sunday morning
Chiefs vs. Ravens is certainly a very high-profile Sunday Night Football matchup, but it’s surprising to see the perception of these teams from mainstream media analysts, fans and recreational bettors after just one week of action.
In front of a nationally-televised Monday Night Football audience, the Ravens lost to the Raiders in Las Vegas.
On the other hand, the Chiefs gave us a classic Kansas City comeback by storming from behind to beat the Cleveland Browns at Arrowhead Stadium.
At the time of writing, 78% of spread tickets are laying the points with the Chiefs, tying them as the most public side of NFL Week 2 with the New England Patriots.
There’s no question bettors are overreacting to Week 1 results, so is Baltimore the smart play to bounce back on Sunday Night Football?
Or is the Chiefs vs. Ravens over/under providing the most value instead?
Thanks to our NFL PRO Projections we know the answer.
Chiefs vs. Ravens Betting Model Pick
The projected Chiefs vs. Ravens edge is rooted in the value of key NFL numbers.
Three-point margins of victory are (by far) the most common in NFL games due to the propensity of field goals, making 3-point spreads the most important number for spread bettors.
Our NFL betting model projects the Chiefs vs. Ravens spread at Baltimore +2.3, resulting in a 3.9% edge for the home underdog when compared to the current consensus spread of +3.5.
A 1.4-point difference might not seem all that big, but because the difference between our projected and current spreads means getting through +3, the most important number in NFL betting, there is enough of an edge to warrant a Baltimore bet.
PRO Projections Pick: Ravens +3.5
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