Rob Newell – CameraSport via Getty Images. Pictured: Chelsea goalkeeper Édouard Mendy.
Chelsea vs. Manchester City Odds
| Chelsea Odds | +165 |
| Manchester City Odds | +180 |
| Draw | +230 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+105 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 7:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
“It does not take a miracle to win against Manchester City…”
Well, if anyone is going to deliver those direct, succinct words, Thomas Tuchel should be the one to say them. Chelsea’s manager, who has watched his side get the better of its rival of late, hopes the club continues its dominant form against Manchester City in Saturday’s Premier League showdown.
The Blues, who enter the latest tussle between global juggernauts as slight favorites, hope to continue their recent run of success against their foes. Chelsea, the reigning Champions League title holder, has reeled off three consecutive victories against Manchester City entering this latest affair.
🗣 "It does not take a miracle to win against Man City."
Thomas Tuchel says the Chelsea team have the belief that they can beat Manchester City pic.twitter.com/hffxGZfNw4
— Football Daily (@footballdaily) September 24, 2021
Both have gotten off to solid starts in the English top flight, but Tuchel and the Blues have been the cream of the crop up to this point. They sit atop the standings with a 4-0-1 record (W-L-D), with the lone “blemish” coming in a 1-1 draw with mighty Liverpool.
On the other side, the Cityzens have been good en route to a 3-1-1 mark, but settled for a disappointing scoreless draw with Southampton at Etihad Stadium last time out. The lone setback came in a surprising 1-0 loss against Tottenham Hotspur on opening weekend.
With so much on the line this early in the season, we should be in for a doozy that pits clubs who will surely be in the EPL title hunt the entire campaign.
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Chelsea Enjoying Brilliant Start to Campaign
I wasn’t sure if we’d see a better version of the Blues following last season’s dream run. However, Chelsea might be stronger this time around and is worthy of its +200 odds to capture this season’s championship.
The Blues are dominating in possession as usual, finishing with the edge in that category in every match outside of the stalemate with Liverpool, according to FBref.com.
There was one big catch in that meeting with the Reds, though.
Chelsea played the second half down a man after Reece James was sent off in the third minute of stoppage time in the opening 45 minutes, which led to the skewed number. The Blues were the better side prior to James’ exit, so they could have easily led the category if the clubs were at even strength.
Edouard Mendy in training today. Thomas Tuchel confirmed earlier he will start against Manchester City. pic.twitter.com/5cpn1WDqGc
— Adam Newson (@AdamNewson) September 24, 2021
Chelsea does have a few health issues, with Mason Mount joining American international Christian Pulisic on the sideline. However, Tuchel revealed in Friday’s press conference that goalkeeper Édouard Mendy would start after recovering from a rib injury.
That’s huge news, considering Mendy has recorded 19 clean sheets in 35 EPL appearances for the Blues. He sat out last weekend’s 3-0 rout of Tottenham Hotspur, then missed the midweek triumph over Aston Villa in Carabao Cup action. His presence will give this Chelsea defense, which has conceded just that lone goal against Liverpool, even more confidence entering this bout.
It will be interesting to see how Tuchel manages his players when it comes to his starting lineup, largely due to fact Chelsea has a big road UCL matchup against Serie A giant Juventus on Wednesday in Turin.
Obviously, both fixtures are important for different reasons, so it will be interesting to see if we see some changes ahead of the trip to Italy.
Can Manchester City Finally Get Best of Host Side?
Manager Pep Guardiola and the Cityzens were as dominant as ever last season, storming to the EPL crown in style. Unfortunately, they couldn’t beat the lads from London in their two biggest matchups outside of league play.
First, Chelsea captured a 1-0 win over Manchester City in an FA Cup semifinal at Wembley Stadium. Hakim Ziyech scored the game winner in the 55th minute that day, giving the Blues the coveted hardware.
Then came the icing on the cake via Chelsea’s identical 1-0 victory in the Champions League final. Kai Havertz delivered a first-half goal that was all the club needed to take home the biggest prize in European soccer. Needless to say, Chelsea has had Manchester City’s number and it’s something that has become an issue for Guardiola’s team.
When it comes to the advanced metrics (which you see below), Manchester City utterly dominates Chelsea in all major categories. However, more than half of the Cityzens’ 12.2 expected goals came in identical 5-0 thrashings of last-place Norwich City and struggling Arsenal on back-to-back weekends.
The concern, albeit pretty much the lone worry surrounding Manchester City, came in the matches against Spurs and, most recently, Southampton. They were shut out in both games, with the latter game creating more cause for concern since the Cityzens had just 1.0 xG on home soil against the Saints.
Like his counterpart, Guardiola is dealing fitness issues to key players. Rodri, John Stones, Ilkay Gündogan and Aymeric Laporte have questions surrounding their availability, so keep an eye out for updates prior to the match to see who, if any of the walking wounded, are fit enough to play.
Tale of The Tape
| KEY METRICS | CHELSEA | MAN CITY |
|---|---|---|
| Record (W-L-D) | 4-0-1 | 3-1-1 |
| xG (Expected Goals) | 7.6 | 12.2 |
| xGA | 5.5 | 2.7 |
| xG Differential | +2.1 | +9.5 |
| xGDiff/90 Minutes | +0.42 | +1.90 |
Betting Analysis & Picks
Talk about an even match. There’s no other way to describe it.
I think the latest versions of these clubs could play 10 times and they’d probably split them down the middle.
For several days, I’ve gone back and forth on which side has the edge, but couldn’t come to any definitive conclusion when looking at the metrics and overall performances.
Bottom line, this game is that tight.
For that reason, I’m going to take a swing on the draw at +230 odds via DraftKings as my top selection. Both sides want to win this game to stamp their place as the EPL title front runner, but with those huge European fixtures on deck, you’d have to think neither will go all out here.
If you made me choose between them, I think Chelsea gives us the best value on the Draw No Bet wager at -115 odds, simply due to its run of form against Manchester City and the fact it has fewer health concerns. However, I’ve found way more value in a tie happening at Stamford Bridge.
I’m also going to back the total staying under 2.5 goals at -125 odds. Historical trends tell us this game should go over the number, as four of their last six confrontations have reached a combined three goals or more.
Yet, when you factor in key players carrying knocks on both sides with the looming Champions League games, I expect this to be more of a hard-nosed affair showcasing two world-class defenses.
Picks: Draw (+230) | Total Under 2.5 Goals (-125)
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