Steph Chambers/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Abreu.
Cardinals vs. White Sox Odds
| Cardinals Odds | +160 |
| White Sox Odds | -190 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (=104 / -118) |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings. | |
The White Sox will look to complete a three-game sweep of the Cardinals on Wednesday afternoon after taking the first game, 5-1, and winning last night, 8-3.
The White Sox own the second-best record in the American League at 28-19 and have the second-best run differential in baseball at +73.
St. Louis has now dropped seven of its last 10 games and sits just half a game up on the Cubs for first place in the NL Central.
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Gant Gives St. Louis Plenty to Work With
Entering the season as the presumed fifth starter — only due to injuries — John Gant (RHP) has low-key been terrific for the Cardinals this season. Despite just a 3-3 record, Gant leads the team with a 2.04 ERA through eight starts. He has not allowed more than three runs in a single start and has allowed one or fewer in five of them.
Prior to this season, Gant had not started a game for the Cardinals since 2018, when he went 7-6 with a 3.47 ERA. He spent the last two seasons coming out of the bullpen, recording a 3.66 ERA in 2019 and 2.40 ERA in 2020.
The red flag for Gant is that despite a 2.04 ERA, he has a 5.03 xERA and 4.13 FIP. Teams are batting .231 against him but have an expected average of .265 and .351 xwOBA. He also has a 6.35 BB/9 rate, which ranks in the bottom 10% in the league. Regression could be coming for Gant, but again, as its fifth starter, I’m sure St. Louis is more than happy with his start to the season.
The St. Louis offense has been relatively average this season, if not slightly below average. It ranks 16th in runs per game, 19th in batting average, 18th in OPS, 21st in wOBA and 18th in wRC+. The Cardinals also rank just 24th in wOBA over the last week
Yadier Molina started the season on fire but has since cooled off. Nolan Arenado has been good, but he hasn’t been not the elite player we saw in Colorado, as he’s batting .289 this year with a .880 OPS. Paul Goldschmidt has been better recently but is hitting just .254 this season.
White Sox Lineup Continues to Stay Hot
Over a quarter of the way through the season, and Carlos Rodon (LHP) is a legitimate Cy Young Award candidate. Through seven starts, Rodon is 5-1 with a 1.27 ERA. Only Jacob deGrom has a lower ERA than Rodon this season.
The Sox hurler has allowed one run or less in six of his seven starts and has four shutouts, including his brilliant no-hitter on April 14. The left-hander ranks in the top 5% of the league in xERA, xwOBA, xSLG and K%.
Rodon’s velocity is up over two miles per hour from last season with his fastball jumping from 93.0 mph to 95.3 and his slider rising from 83.5 mph to 85.8. His strikeout rate has gone up from his 9.12 K/9 over his career to 13.08 K/9 this season. His slider has also been brilliant, generating a 60.4 K% and just a .022 batting average against.
With a lineup full of exciting young players, the White Sox bats have lived up to hype so far this season. They rank second in the league in wRC+, fourth in batting average, and fifth in wOBA.
Even with Eloy Jimenez and Luis Robert out of the lineup, the White Sox are so deep that it hasn’t slowed them down at all. Last year’s AL MVP, Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada and Tim Anderson have all been terrific. Rookie sensation Yermin Mercedes has been one of the stories of the season as he’s batting .344 with a .912 OPS and .402 wOBA.
Cardinals-White Sox Pick
I think the negative regression is lurking for Gant, and this White Sox lineup is a tough ask to continue to outperform his metrics. — especially when he’s tasked with outpitching a Cy Young candidate.
The White Sox have the advantage on the mound, and as they do against most teams, they also have the advantage at the plate.
I like Chicago to complete the sweep against St. Louis but almost never lay a -180 price. Instead, I will back the White Sox on the run line to win by -1.5.
Chicago has a moneyline record of 28-19 this season. Of those 28 wins, it has won by at least two runs and covered the run line in 23 of them. It has outscored the Cardinals, 13-4, through the first two games of this series, and I like it to finish out the sweep by a commanding margin.
Pick: White Sox -1.5 (+114)
