Lars Baron/Getty Images. Pictured: Borussia Dortmund star Erling Haaland.
Dortmund vs. Hoffenheim Odds
| Dortmund Odds | -225 |
| Hoffenheim Odds | +525 |
| Draw | +360 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-125 / -110) |
| Day | Time | Friday | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Thursday afternoon via BetMGM. | |
New season, same story for Borussia Dortmund.
The Black and Yellows face Hoffenheim on Friday, as they look to bounce back from a frustrating away defeat at Freiburg. They might have a new manager, but it’s a similar result that has kept Dortmund from competing for the Bundesliga title in recent years.
Meanwhile, Hoffenheim enter the third matchweek second in the table, thanks to a dominant win in their season opener that was followed by a draw in last week’s fixtures.
Let’s break down where the value lies in this matchup.
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Dortmund Coming Off Typically Frustrating Loss
Dortmund’s loss to Freiburg last weekend was pretty typical for the free-flowing side.
The Black and Yellows registered 1.02 expected goals in the first half, but trailed 1-0 at the break. They conceded another goal early in the second half, which was too much for them to overcome.
Dortmund had 76% of the possession, but took home no points. It was the kind of result fans have come to hate, and the reason they haven’t been able to compete with Bayern Munich.
Mental lapses like that happened too often at home last season for Dortmund. At Signal Iduna Park, they took 35 points from 17 games, which would be fine if it was their away record. If they have ambitions of winning the league, they need more success at home.
Dortmund’s home matches saw them score 40 goals and concede 20 last season, which averages out to 3.53 goals per game.
The star of Dortmund show is obviously Erling Haaland, who’s averaging one goal per match since signing for the club in January 2020. With a release clause that will be more than reasonable for Europe’s elite that kicks in next summer, this will be the club’s final season with the Norwegian superstar.
Replacing Jadon Sancho will be crucial for Dortmund, who have signed Dutch forward Donyell Malen in his place. Much is expected of American teenager Gio Reyna, who inherited Sancho’s No. 7 kit.
Jude Bellingham is a rising star for Dortmund in midfield. He has been paired with Mahmoud Dahoud so far this season, although that’s because Axel Witsel has dropped into defense with multiple injuries to the crop of center backs.
Hoffenheim Hope to Secure Road Upset
We’ve seen two versions of Hoffenheim so far this season, and the one that played away from home was far superior.
Hoffenheim opened the season with a 4-0 win away at Augsburg, registering a very impressive 3.44 xG along the way. They came home and drew Union Berlin in a 2-2 tie, but were beaten by a 2.35-0.97 margin in the xG battle.
Last season was disappointing for Hoffenheim, who finished in 11th place. That’s right about where their underlying metrics indicate they should have wound up, though.
This season, it’s a pretty similar squad. Andrej Kramaric has yet to score, but has assisted an impressive four of the team’s six goals on the season. Former Dortmund youngster Jacob Bruun Larsen has scored twice.
The opening game against Augsburg could be seen as a little misleading. While Hoffenheim convincingly won the game, they registered just 0.75 xG in the first half and scored three times after the 75th minute. It was a tighter game for most of the 90 minutes than the scoreline indicated.
Hoffenheim had much more of the ball against Union Berlin, completing 503 passes to Union’s 222, but only managed to create seven shots. After scoring twice in the first half, Hoffenheim had just 0.25 xG in the second 45 minutes.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Dortmund lost six away games in the Bundesliga last season, including three in a row right after the winter break that really doomed their campaign. They won four of the five home matches following those and drew the other.
This is an experienced team that’s far more talented than most Bundesliga sides. They have a strong manager in Marco Rose, who will no doubt have his team ready to roll for this game.
BetMGM has the best bet for me in this game: Dortmund to win and over 2.5 combined goals at -135 odds. The Black and Yellows’ moneyline is far too high to trust on its own, plus the total of 3.5 goals seems excessive. Fellow analyst BJ Cunningham only projects 3.23 xG for this game.
I expect Dortmund, who are referred to as “Team 1” at BetMGM as the home team, to bounce back and win, though, and over 2.5 seems like a sure thing given their propensity to both score and concede at home.
Pick: Team 1 (Dortmund) To Win & Over 2.5 Combined Goals (-135)
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