Maja Hitij/Getty Images. Pictured: Hertha Berlin standout Vladimír Darida.
Bayern Munich vs. Hertha Berlin Odds
| Bayern Munich Odds | -600 |
| Hertha Berlin Odds | +1400 |
| Draw | +800 |
| Over/Under | 3.5 (-155 / +125) |
| Day | Time | Saturday | 12:30 p.m. ET |
| How To Watch | ESPN+ |
| Odds updated Friday evening via DraftKings. | |
Through two games into the 2021-22 season, Bayern Munich looks very similar to last year’s version of the club. The Bavarians can score with any team in the world, but the defensive issues remain in place.
A thrilling 3-2 victory against Köln at home last week put them in the win column for the first time in the Bundesliga season, so Bayern Munich will look to make it consecutive triumphs Saturday at Allianz Arena when they host Hertha Berlin.
Hertha has dropped its first two Bundesliga games, but has been unlucky in doing so. They’ve played even with two solid teams and given their performances, the results should start to follow.
Add in Bayern’s defensive issues and the hosts shouldn’t be 2.5-goal favorites against even mediocre Bundesliga sides. That said, there’s value in backing Hertha to keep this matchup at least somewhat close.
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Defensive Concerns Still Surrounding Bayern Munich
Bayern’s issues defensively have carried over from last season and continued in the opening two games against Borussia Mönchengladbach and Köln. Gladbach looked dangerous every time they tried to break, plus they got behind the Bayern defense on multiple occasions.
The Bayern defense switched off and allowed two clear scoring chances in the second half just after it has gone up 2-0 in the match.
When their press isn’t as effective given their aging front line and pressing being down across all of Europe, the Bavrians’ high defensive line gets exposed. They have new center backs this year in Nikolas Süle and Dayot Upamecano, but injuries to their fullbacks and the lack of a true holding midfielder leave them vulnerable to direct attacks.
Bayern has only scored four goals from 5.6 xG to start the Bundesliga season. While a team with elite attackers is expected to marginally outperform its xG numbers over the course of the campaign, the Bavarians ran way too hot in front of goal with 99 goals from 75.8 xG last season.
Some regression is to be expected, which is part of the reason their totals and spreads against mid-to-low table Bundesliga sides tend to be inflated.
Numbers Don’t Tell Exact Tale for Hertha Berlin
A look at their underlying passing and possession numbers don’t offer a ton of optimism entering this game against Bayern, but game state and small samples can throw off the numbers.
Hertha was leading or tied for most of its contest with Wolfsburg after a penalty, thus naturally sat deeper and absorbed more pressure than it would in a different game state. They led for the whole first half at Köln before being pegged back, meaning they were again unlikely to be on the front foot.
Looking at the data from last year, they were unlucky to ever be in the relegation fight and dealt with a significant COVID-19 outbreak in the second half of the campaign that forced multiple fixtures to be rescheduled to the end of the season.
Hertha was among the most underrated defenses in the Bundesliga. The Old Lady is adept to sitting deep, absorbing pressure and hitting with direct counters, which is probably the best way to get at this Bayern defense.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Bayern’s leaky defense and regression-bound attack make them overvalued in this spot at home. Hertha has had a difficult start based on results, but their performances have been better than their results suggest and they should be able to get on the board and keep this game relatively close.
You have to pick and choose your spots to bet against the Bayern machine, and this is a good time with an international break looming ahead.
Pick: Hertha Berlin +2.5 (-125 or better)
