Photo by Elsa/Getty Images. Pictured: Giannis Antetokounmpo.
The vast majority of bets have been placed on the Atlanta Hawks spread—which opened at +7.5 and has moved to +8—for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals against the Milwaukee Bucks.
Just roughly 36% of the bets and 44% of the total money at BetMGM is on the Bucks to cover the spread on Wednesday night.
If you’re the type to incorporate historical precedent into your sports betting portfolio, the Bucks as an 8-point favorite might be a solid value play.
Since 2005, playoff favorites that have received 40% or fewer bets have gone 102-67-5 (60.4%) against the spread.
If a bettor put $100 on the favorite’s spread each game in the aforementioned scenario, they would be up $2,948. That’s a return on investment of 16.9%.
Ironically, even though more than 64% of the public have wagered on the Hawks’ spread, the Bucks’ spread has lengthened slightly.
So has the Bucks moneyline. While Milwaukee opened up as -300 favorites, that line has since moved to -350.
While only 45% of the tickets are on the Bucks moneyline, about 70% of the money favors Milwaukee to win.
The total for Game 1 has moved, too. The total opened at 229.5 but has since dropped rather substantially to 225.5. About 79% of the tickets and 85% of the money is on the under for this matchup.
Milwaukee is a heavy favorite at -500 to win the series and advance to its first NBA Finals since 1974. The Hawks are +375 at BetMGM to make the Finals for the first time since the franchise moved to Atlanta in 1968.
The Bucks are +110 and the Hawks are +1200 to lift the Larry O’Brien Trophy come July.
