Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes & Jacob deGrom
Brewers vs. Mets Game 1 Odds
| Brewers Odds | +140 |
| Mets Odds | -165 |
| Over/Under | 4.5 (-118 / -104) |
| Time | 2:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings. | |
Brewers vs. Mets Game 2 Odds
| Brewers Odds | +110 |
| Mets Odds | -127 |
| Over/Under | 7 (+102 / -125) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings. | |
A pair of division leaders will square off for a doubleheader on Wednesday with the NL Central-leading Milwaukee Brewers taking on the NL East-leading New York Mets.
The Brew Crew is red hot, going 12-3 in their last 15 games and now will have Cy Young candidate Corbin Burnes on the mound for Game 1. However, he will have to face Cy Young favorite (by a wide margin) in Jacob deGrom.
With one of the lowest game totals you will ever see at just 4.5, which pitcher has the edge?
Burnes, Brewers’ Offense On A Roll
Burnes will get things started in Game 1 and he has been brilliant this season. He has a 2.41 ERA, which ranks 12th in the league. Burnes is second in the league with a 13.17 K/9 rate. He has a phenomenal cutter as well as a great curveball and ranks in the top 1% of the league in xwOBA, xSLG and xERA.
Game 2 will be 33-year-old Brett Anderson on the mound. The veteran lefty has a 4.69 ERA in 12 starts. While a 4.69 ERA certainly isn’t great, his 7.23 xERA is even worse. While Burnes is in the top 1%, Anderson ranks in the bottom 1% of the league in xwOBA and xERA. Anderson has struggled over the last month, allowing three runs or more in three of his last four starts. His last outing against Arizona lasted just 1 1/3 innings after allowing three runs.
After a terrible start to the season, the Milwaukee bats have finally come to life. Over the last two weeks, the Brewers have scored the most runs of any team in the league and rank sixth in batting average and fourth in OPS.
The trade for shortstop Willy Adames from Tampa Bay has worked out great as he is batting .341 with a 1,168 OPS over the last two weeks. The middle infield of him and Jace Peterson has been red-hot for the Crew.
It’s All About deGrom
If you haven’t watched deGrom this season, you need to. He is on pace to have the lowest ERA in baseball history. He has a miniscule 0.95 ERA this season and has allowed just 12 runs in 14 starts all year. He has allowed two runs or more just twice all year and has an incredible 14.40 K/9. There isn’t much more to say about deGrom that isn’t already known. He is the most dominant player in the league, and it isn’t really close.
The Mets have not announced who will start Game 2, but it could be Robert Stock, who was recalled from Triple-A. Stock has made one MLB start this year, as a member of the Cubs — actually against the Mets — before New York claimed him off waivers on June 22. Stock allowed five runs in four innings but clearly the Mets saw something they liked.
New York’s offense has just not been able to maintain consistency this season. The Mets have a talented lineup, but rank just 29th in the league in runs per game. They sit 24th in batting average and 26th in OPS and have struggled in their home bark that favors the pitchers.
The Mets’ big offseason signing, Francisco Lindor, is batting just .219 with a .676 OPS this season and the rest of the team has battled injuries all year. Luckily, Brandon Nimmo just returned to the lineup and is batting 7-for-18 in his four games back.
Brewers-Mets Pick
I know it’s only a seven inning game, but seeing a game total set a 4.5 is so ridiculous that you almost have to bet the under just for fun, right? We have deGrom vs. Burnes in one of the best pitching matchups we will see all season. What could be better than a seven-inning sweat with two of the best arms in the game squaring off?
Game 2 is harder to handicap just because we aren’t sure who is starting for the Mets yet. The Mets are currently installed as small favorites, and I think I would lean the Brewers in that spot as underdogs. Despite how bad Anderson has been this year, if it is Stock for New York, he has made just one big league start all year and it did not go well.
Citi Field is one of the most pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball so hopefully that will help Anderson a little bit. The Brewers have been hitting the ball much better than the Mets, so with two bad pitchers on the mound, I will back the better offense as an underdog in Game 2 at +105 or better.
Pick: Game 1: Under 4.5. | Game 2: Milwaukee at +105 or better
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