Mike Stobe/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom.
Braves vs. Mets Odds
| Braves Odds | +120 |
| Mets Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 (+100 / -120) |
| Time | 7:08 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Sunday afternoon via bet365. | |
The totals just continue to get more and more ridiculous in games started by the indomitable Jacob deGrom, with this one creeping down to 5.5. With that, and an offensive explosion from New York on Saturday, all value could be lost in taking Mets unders.
Is there some value left in backing the Mets though, with the thought that this offense could actually scratch across a few runs? Let’s have a look at the numbers and find some value here.
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Braves Falling Back Into Tailspin
The Braves were just hitting their stride when Marcell Ozuna went down to a finger injury, and the team has begun to fall back into a tailspin. The Braves mustered up just two runs against a rusty Taijuan Walker and the Mets bullpen on Saturday, and the game before were torched by the Red Sox in a 9-5 loss.
The feeling around this team is bleak, and the rain and cold conditions in Flushing Meadows on Sunday night will only be fitting at the moment.
Max Fried will get the ball for Atlanta in the midst of what’s been a strange season so far. The lefty spent time on the injured list and has come back to good results, allowing just an earned run in four-straight outings.
With that said, walks have begun to be somewhat of an issue for Fried and his strikeouts have fluctuated massively. Still, he can hang his hat on the fact that he just dominated the Mets over six strong innings just two starts ago, allowing five hits and striking out eight.
There’s also the deGrom versus a division rival here to talk about very quickly. The current Braves have a 0.269 xwOBA against the righty, with a .200 xBA. With that said, Atlanta’s strong bats have been great against the reigning Cy Young Award winner; Ronald Acuna is hitting .320 off of deGrom, and Freddie Freeman has homered off him three times since the start of 2015.
They’re familiar enough, but the lineup top to bottom may lack the firepower needed to get to a pitcher this dominant.
Can deGrom Continue Dominance for Mets?
Don’t look now, but the Mets are really heating up. This team, which just had to trade for Billy McKinney because it literally was out of major-league outfielders, has won four in a row, continuing to fend off some pesky division rivals and hold onto first place.
After some low-scoring affairs against the Rockies, New York finally broke out against a struggling Braves bullpen, with Francisco Lindor picking up a couple of huge hits and James McCann reaching four times.
The offense here just may have enough to get a couple of runs for deGrom, with a somewhat respectable 94 wRC+ and some familiarity with Fried, just as the Braves have familiarity with deGrom.
Speaking of the righty, what more can you really say about how good this guy has been? His strikeout rate has ratcheted up to 46.5% this season, and almost impossibly his walk rate has dropped all the way to 4.4 percent.
Atlanta has been victimized by strikeouts lately, ranking fourth in K% over the past two weeks, and it was a huge issue for this team before a brief offensive surge to get them out of a slump. deGrom’s stuff should really play up here with the way these bats are performing.
Braves-Mets Pick
With that, I see plenty of value in taking the Mets here in what should be a cold, wet game where hitting is at a premium. This total is far too low, so I think the value here lies in taking the stronger pitcher with the better matchup with the opposing offense.
Fried should be good in this one as well, but it’s far easier to see this scrappy team of unexpected major-leaguers crossing the plate a few times with the way they’ve been hitting as opposed to the Braves getting to deGrom for more than a run. I’ll happily lay down the juice to back the home team.
Pick: Mets -140
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