Boston College vs. Temple Odds & Pick: Why You Should Fade the Eagles in Week 3 (Sept. 18)

Boston College vs. Temple Odds

Both teams are likely starting backup quarterbacks on Saturday as Boston College travels to Philadelphia to take on Temple.

The Owls lost starter D’Wan Mathis in the middle of their opening day loss to Rutgers, while BC quarterback Phil Jurkovec suffered an injury against UMass last week that could leave him sidelined for the rest of the season.

Mathis is a former four-star recruit who transferred from Georgia. Meanwhile, Boston College entered 2021 with a lot of optimism in year two with Jurkovec — a transfer from Notre Dame — under center. Without either quarterback, both BC and Temple have turned to inexperienced backups to run the offense.

While both backups played well against Akron and UMass, respectively, both opponents are among the worst teams in all of Division I FBS.

Without Jurkovec on the road, the Eagles’ offense isn’t potent enough to cover a 15-point spread. That means the value lies with the Owls in this matchup, despite being a worse team in almost every statistical category.

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The Eagles had no problems beating UMass, but the Minuteman managed 335 total yards and kept the game much closer than the bookmakers and pundits expected. It’s a rivalry game, but UMass is one of the worst teams in the country and had a surprising amount of offensive success against the BC defense.

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Eagles Offense

With Jurkovec out, the Boston College offense now runs through Dennis Grosel. As a former preferred walk-on, Grosel appeared in games in both 2019 and 2020, replacing former QB Anthony Brown in 2019 after an injury and briefly replacing Jurkovec last season.

The Eagles will lean on the rushing attack, where Temple has been most vulnerable thus far this year. Boston College is 18th in Rushing Success Rate and has amassed 214 yards per game in its first two games.

The Eagles’ Passing Success Rate numbers came against Colgate and UMass, so it’s not really clear what they’re going to get from Grosel in this game.

Passing Success Rate defense is one area where the Temple defense has been solid thus far this year, and the Owls’ ability to prevent big chunk plays through the air should keep them within the number.

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Eagles Defense

Boston College has solid defensive metrics across the board after two weeks in 2021, but UMass’s ability to move the ball up and down the field certainly raises some concerns.

The Minutemen managed 20 first downs and 335 total yards. They averaged 7.4 yards per passing attempt and 4.0 yards per rush, more than the Minutemen usually manage against Power 5 opponents.

Temple moved the ball really well in the second half against Akron as Justin Lynch settled into his role, so there could be plenty of room for the Owls to keep this close or get in the backdoor late.

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Temple’s embarrassing 61-14 loss to Rutgers wasn’t nearly as lopsided as the final score indicated. The Owls were only outgained by 104 yards in total and Rutgers was 3-for-3 on fourth down compared to 1-for-3 for TU.

The Owls lost the turnover battle 5-0 with three fumbles and two interceptions. Most of those turnovers came deep in their own territory and the Scarlet Knights were very efficient in converting their scoring opportunities.

It was a real Murphy’s Law situation for the Owls, but the success rate and per play numbers indicated the game was much closer than the scoreline was.

That’s certainly impacting the number here.

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Owls Offense

Without Mathis, the Owls’ offense turns to Lynch.

Lynch only threw three passes against Rutgers and one of them was intercepted, but he performed much better against lowly Akron in his first start.

He finished 19-of-23 passing for 245 yards and two touchdowns. He threw zero interceptions and wasn’t sacked in the game.

Even though the BC defense is pretty stout up front and should shut TU out of rushing success, the Owls’ ability to break off big plays makes them ripe for a potential big score or two to stay inside the spread.

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Owls Defense

Through two games, the Owls have been much better in the pass rush and secondary than they’ve been defending the run.

Temple ranks in 46th in Pass Rush and 36th in Passing Success Rate defensively. This pairs with being 117th in Rushing Success Rate allowed and Line Yards.

The Owls will have issues stopping the run, but they’ve been good at avoiding explosiveness and have been decent at stopping the pass. Both are important for preventing BC from piling on easy scores.

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Boston College vs. Temple Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Boston College and Temple match up statistically:

Boston College Offense vs. Temple Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	18	117
Line Yards	82	117
Pass Success	11	36
Pass Blocking*	6	46
Big Play	32	54
Havoc**	13	107
Finishing Drives	41	106
*Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)**Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

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Temple Offense vs. Boston College Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	100	46
Line Yards	71	42
Pass Success	80	47
Pass Blocking*	72	51
Big Play	27	20
Havoc**	106	14
Finishing Drives	58	37
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)** Havoc Allowed (Off.) vs. Havoc (Def.)

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Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	49	118
PFF Coverage	51	80
Middle 8	76	31
SP+ Special Teams	17	114
Plays per Minute	103	130
Rush Rate	62.5% (30)	58.3% (47)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.

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Boston College vs. Temple Betting Pick

The market has been relatively steady on this game after BC opened as 16-point favorites at Circa with a total of 57. The total hasn’t moved at all, and the Eagles slid down a point throughout the week.

Anything over two touchdowns is good on the Owls in this game. They play their first game at home and BC is in a tricky spot with bigger outings against Missouri and Clemson on deck.

Boston College’s defense showed some cracks against UMass. Temple only needs to break off a couple big plays to stay inside the number.

The Owls’ blowout loss to Rutgers was a bit of a fluke box score anyway, so I’m fading Grosel and the Eagles on the road here.

Pick: Temple +14.5 or better

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