Boise State vs. Colorado State Odds

The Boise State Broncos did not look like the leaders of the Mountain West on Wednesday night, when they lost to Colorado State, 78-56. They get another crack at the Rams on Friday in a game that will determine first place in the Mountain West. 

Colorado State has proven that it deserves to be in the conversation as one of the top teams in the conference. So far this year they have beaten last year’s Mountain West regular season winner in San Diego State, as well as last year’s conference tournament winner — Utah State. Their win on Wednesday completed the trifecta, taking down the current conference leader in Boise State.

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Is Boise State a Contender or Pretender?

Boise State’s record is impressive at first sight, at 13-2 overall and 9-1 in the conference. Upon second look, there is not much to be impressed about the Broncos’ season thus far.

They have had the benefit of playing the easiest schedule of anyone in the Mountain West. Having faced only two teams inside the top 50, the Broncos split those two games, beating BYU, but losing the season opener to Houston.

The Broncos have done what they’re supposed to do at this point by beating up on bad teams. Boise State has played 12 of its 15 games against teams ranked 181st or worse in the country, according to KenPom.

They crushed their in-conference opponents by an average of 23 points entering Wednesday’s game against Colorado State. But that game was the first test that Boise State really had in the last two months and it spoke volumes about this team.

What We Learned from Wednesday’s Game

Colorado State came out hot against Boise on Wednesday and went into the half with a 15-point lead. Boise clawed back to get the lead down to five in the second half before Colorado State poured it on, eventually winning by 22. 

Boise has been the best offensive team in the conference this year, averaging 81.9 points per game in Mountain West games. That was not the case on Wednesday, the Rams completely shut down the Broncos’ offense, holding them to 38% from the field and just 22% from 3-point range. 

The one bright spot for Boise State was Derrick Alston Jr., who scored 20 points on Wednesday. Colorado State completely shut out everyone else on the Broncos, allowing only one other player — Marcus Shavier Jr. — to score 10 points.

For Colorado State, it was David Roddy who was the star of the show. Roddy scored 27 points and had 15 rebounds, both of which are career highs. Roddy had some help in the victory, with three other players scoring in double digits. 

What stands out from the teams’ first matchup is that Colorado State rolled in the fashion it did while fumbling 19 turnovers. If the Rams don’t turn the ball over Friday night, we could be in for a similar final score. 

Betting Analysis & Pick

Colorado State is 7-0 at home this year and I anticipate that trend to continue Friday night. This Boise State team is not as good as its record indicates, and I’m looking to cash in on that over the next few weeks while the market still has them valued as a top team. 

Colorado State will clean up the turnovers this time around, and will be fired up by the opportunity to take control of the Mountain West Conference. I’m anticipating a similar result as Wednesday night and am backing Colorado State.

Pick: Colorado State Pick | Play down to -2.5