Cliff Welch/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Alek Manoah.
Blue Jays vs. Yankees Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | +120 |
| Yankees Odds | -140 |
| Over/Under | TBA |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Thursday morning and via PointsBet. | |
The Blue Jays and Yankees battle in Game 1 of a doubleheader on Thursday after Mother Nature would not cooperate Wednesday.
Toronto enters Thursday starting to fall off the pace in the AL East, as it’s 4.5 games back of the Rays heading into the new day. The Jays will, however, be sending their young sensation and 11th overall pick from 2019, Alek Manoah, to the mounds in hopes he can give them the boost they need.
New York is still hanging around the top of the division despite the fact injuries are starting to mount. Corey Kluber, Luke Voit, and Giancarlo Stanton all find themselves on the IL, which will make life difficult for Aaron Boone. The Yankees will send Domingo German to the mound in hopes he can keep his solid season going against a difficult Blue Jays lineup.
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Offensive Matchup
Blue Jays Have Good Matchup Against German
Numbers have been adjusted for seven-inning game.
The Blue Jays’ lineup has been absolutely mashing right-handed pitching. They rank fourth in MLB with a .337 wOBA and have 107 wRC+. They also own the fifth-lowest K% and hit the third-most home runs in baseball against righties.
They should have a fantastic matchup against Domingo German because German goes to his curveball way more often than any other pitch in his arsenal. The Blue Jays just happen to be the second-best lineup in baseball against curveballs, with 13.2 weighted curveball runs already this season, per FanGraphs.
Injuries Hit Yankees Hard
Numbers have been adjusted for seven-inning game.
New York’s lineup has been improving over the past month, but just when things start going well, the injury bug hits. Stanton and Voit are now on the IL, which means Miguel Andujar, Tyler Wade, and others will be in the lineup for the foreseeable future.
The Yankees have been very average against right-handed pitching, posting a .312 wOBA and wRC+. Now, they’ll face one of the most highly-touted right-handed prospects in the game in Manoah.
Starting Pitching Matchup
Alek Manoah vs. Domingo German
2021 Stats (via FanGraphs)
Blue Jays Starting Pitcher
Alek Manoah, RHP
Manoah is a very interesting prospect because he was a relative nobody until his junior year at West Virginia when lit up college baseball and shot up everyone’s draft boards — so much that the Blue Jays drafted him with the 11th overall pick in 2019.
Manoah usually sits around the mid-90s with his fastball and can touch 97 mph with both his four-seam and two-seam fastballs. He also has a ton of control on it because his BB/9 rate through his first three starts in AAA this season was 1.50.
Manoah’s main secondary pitch is his slider, which doesn’t have a ton of vertical break to it, but it has enough late-breaking horizontal action for it to be effective. He also has a changeup that has decent action and should be somewhat effective in the big leagues.
One thing you’ll see with Manoah is that he has a ton of confidence on the mound. With a lot of control over his three main pitches and the makeup and repeatable delivery, he should have a fantastic first outing against the Yankees this afternoon.
Yankees Starting Pitcher
Domingo German, RHP
2021 Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)
German has actually been pitching pretty well through his first eight starts of 2021. He’s posted a 3.74 xERA, a 3.87 xFIP and has been fantastic with his control, as he has a 1.62 BB/9 rate this season.
The reason he’s been so effective is that his curveball has been unhittable. Opponents have produced just a .135 wOBA against it, and German has a 39.4% whiff rate on that pitch. His biggest problem, though, has been his fastball, as opponents are drilling it for a .344 average and .487 wOBA.
This is really a bad matchup for German because the Blue Jays are top-five against both fastballs and curveballs, so I think he’s going to struggle tonight.
Bullpen/Defensive Matchup
The bullpens likely won’t be as important in this game since it’s only seven innings, but the Yankees will have the advantage because they have one of the best bullpens in baseball with a 3.68 xFIP as a group.
Toronto has been pretty average, posting a 4.23 xFIP, so the later-inning advantage goes to the Yankees, especially since everyone will be available due to the off-day on Wednesday.
Blue Jays-Yankees Pick
I think the Blue Jays’ lineup has a fantastic matchup against German and should be able to give their young sensation on the mound some run support.
Since I have the Blue Jays projected as favorites, I think there’s some value on them at +120 (PointsBet).
Pick: Blue Jays +120
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