Photo by Tim Clayton/Corbis via Getty Images. Pictured: Citi Field baseball stadium
Blue Jays vs. Mets Odds
| Blue Jays Odds | -120 |
| Mets Odds | +100 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-115o/-105u) |
| Time | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | SNY |
Betting on weather in sports is popular for two reason.
First, everyone understands the concept behind it.
Are there strong swirling winds in an NFL matchup? This makes it difficult for quarterbacks to accurately connect on long, explosive passing plays and for kickers to tack on field goals and extra points, resulting in lower-than-expected scoring.
Is wind blowing straight out to center field for a sunny, summer MLB matchup? The added carry offered by strong breezes can help long, warning-track outs carry over the wall for cheap home runs that push final scores over closing totals.
And second, betting on weather works.
Take Major League Baseball, for advantage. Thanks to our Bet Labs data, we know that MLB games with double-digit breezes blowing out go over the closing total 51.1% of the time since 2005.
But not all ballparks are created equal, meaning some are affected by wind more than others based on location, stadium orientation, etc.
Citi Field is one of those parks that’s significantly affected by wind, and wouldn’t you know it, Saturday’s Blue Jays vs. Mets matchup fits an extremely profitable MLB weather trend.
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Blue Jays vs. Mets Pick
Citi Field isn’t just a good stadium when it comes to windy MLB overs, it’s the best.
Over the past 17 MLB seasons, overs are 161-108-12 (59.9%), for a healthy +45.29 units, at Citi Field when winds of at least 10 mph are blowing out from home plate.
The next best windy overs park since 2005? Globe Life Park in Arlington, which has produced at profit of +25.57 units over that same span.
Tonight’s Blue Jays vs. Mets weather forecast is calling steady 11 mph breezes blowing out to center for Saturday night’s matchup, qualifying for this historically-profitable trend.
Does this guarantee that we’ll see more than eight runs tonight at Citi Field? Absolutely not.
But should the offenses needing a little help to clear that hurdle, the weather is certainly there to lend a helping hand.