Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Mark Vital.
#1 Baylor vs. #16 Hartford Odds
| Projected Spread | Illinois -21.9 |
| Projected Total | 139.19 |
| Projected ML | Illinois -2473 |
| Time | TBA |
| TV | TBA |
| Projected odds based on our initial PRO Projections. Odds will be added once they’re released. |
How Baylor & Hartford Match Up
| Baylor | vs. | Hartford |
| 179 | Tempo | 269 |
| 3 | eFG% | 158 |
| 102 | TO% | 176 |
| 4 | OR% | 246 |
| 287 | FTR | 248 |
| 130 | DeFG% | 63 |
| 3 | DTO% | 85 |
| 280 | DR% | 211 |
| 176 | DFTR | 33 |
| All stats via KenPom. |
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What To Know About Baylor
For most of the season, most considered Baylor and Gonzaga as the two best teams in the country with almost no difference between them from a power ratings perspective. That has since changed as Baylor has dropped a few games, while Gonzaga has remained undefeated.
What happened to the Bears? Unfortunately, they had to deal with extreme COVID issues inside the program, which led to a long pause in activities. Since they’ve returned, the Bears just haven’t been the same team, especially on the defensive end. Baylor has just looked much slower on that end and has been much more vulnerable off the dribble and in transiton. Can the Bears regain their pre-covid form?
That’s the primary question heading into the tournament after suffering a loss in the Big 12 semis to Oklahoma State. If it can, you can put it back in Gonzaga’s neighborhood. If not, Bryce Drew’s squad can still certainly make a run, especially if they keep shooting a nation-leading 41.8% from distance for an offense that is also elite on the offensive glass and can score in many different ways. If not, they will be in some exciting, high-variance shootouts and will have to fight to get through the second weekend. — Stuckey
What To Know About Hartford
There’s not much to say about the Hartford offense. It’s dreadful to put it kindly. The Hawks don’t do much well on that end of the floor and are completely inept if the 3s aren’t falling, which they shoot at a top-50 clip nationally.
Where Hartford makes its living is on the defensive end. It’s very strong on that end, led by an excellent on-ball defender in Traci Carter. It ranks in the 95th percentile nationally in half-court man defense, per Synergy.
That said, the Hawks have been quite fortunate in regards to both opponent free-throw shooting (pure luck) and 3-point shooting (part luck), so the regression monster looms.
Hartford is a very hard-nosed club with plenty of experience that has no issues getting into rock fights, but it simply lacks the offensive firepower to even flirt with what conference foe UMBC pulled as a 16-seed a few years ago. — Stuckey