Nic Antaya/Getty Images. Pictured: Ball State quarterback Drew Plitt.
Ball State vs. San Jose State Odds
| Ball State Odds | +9.5 |
| San Jose State Odds | -9.5 |
| Over/Under | 64 |
| PRO Projection | SJSU -3.8 | 62.6 |
| Time | 2 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBSSN |
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An unexpected 7-0 campaign has landed San Jose State its first conference championship since 1991, the No. 22 CFP ranking and a spot in this afternoon’s Arizona Bowl. It’s also given the Spartans a 9.5-point edge in the betting market over Ball State.
But is that spread accurate? Long story short, the answer is no (according to our projections). In fact, this is the last remaining bowl game as of writing with an A+ projection edge grade.
Note: Odds, data as of 9:45 a.m. ET.
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Ball State vs. San Jose State Pick
Perhaps inflated by its unblemished record, San Jose State is being given a lot more credit by the betting market than our model.
While still favoring the Spartans, our model grants them just a 3.8-point advantage, creating a valuable betting opportunity on the other side.
Of course, a nearly six-point difference between a projection and listed spread is noteworthy in itself, but making this one even more valuable is that it passes through the key numbers +4, +6 and most importantly, +7 — all relatively common final-score margins.
PRO Projection edge: Ball State +9.5