Peter Powell – Pool/Getty Images. Pictured: Xavier Schlager.
Group C: Austria vs. North Macedonia Odds
| Austria Odds | -135 |
| North Macedonia Odds | +420 |
| Draw | +235 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+136 / -166) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 12 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds as of Saturday afternoon via PointsBet. | |
Group C kicks off with an intriguing matchup between Austria and the cinderella story of the Euros, North Macedonia.
Austria was a huge sleeper pick for the 2016 tournament but ended up not making it out of the group stage. However, the Austrians bring back a very talented squad and have a fantastic opportunity to get out of the easiest group at this year’s Euros. However, they need to take care of business against North Macedonia like they did in qualifying.
It’s hard not to feel romantic about North Macedonia. This is its first major tournament in the country’s history, and it’s only been a country since 1990. The nation finished third in its qualifying group behind Poland and Austria and needed to beat Kosovo and Georgia in the qualifying playoffs to reach the tournament.
However, while it’s a great story, North Macedonia doesn’t have to talent to compete with a roster like Austria, so it’s going to be an uphill climb that starts in their first match.
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Austria Powered by Strong Midfield
The Austrians will be a team to watch in this group because they come in a little under the radar. They were in one of the easiest qualifying groups, finishing second to Poland, but had the best underlying metrics, averaging 2.57 xG per match, while only allowing 0.92.
The real strength of the Austrians is in their midfield, with three talented players in the middle of the field in RB Leipzig pair Marcel Sabitzer and Konrad Laimer and Wolfsburg standout Xaver Schlager. This trio should be able to dominate against North Macedonia, who are really weak in central midfield.
The Austrians are led up front by 23-year-old Sasa Kalajdzic, who scored 16 goals in 33 appearances for Stuttgart in the Bundesliga this season, carrying a 0.47 xG per 90 minute scoring rate to lead the team. He also scored three of Austria’s five goals in their World Cup qualifying matches back in late March.
Austria was in the same group as North Macedonia during Euro qualifying and both matches were a complete rout, with the Austrians winning 4-1 and 2-1, also dominating the xG battle at 8.87-1.31.
There’s no reason to believe this game will be any different.
North Macedonia Short on Talent
North Macedonia is one of the three worst teams in the competition. It has a couple of guys on its roster you might recognize like 37 year-old striker Goran Pandev, who has the most goals and appearances for North Macedonia.
They also have Eljif Elmas, who is an attacking midfielder for Napoli, Leeds United left back Ezgjan Alioski and Enis Bardhi, a winger for La Liga side Levante. Outside of them, though, it’s pretty bleak.
During qualifiers, North Macedonia was in one of the easiest groups and didn’t put up much of a fight against the two best teams in the group, Poland and Austria. In its four matches against those teams, it lost all four by a combined score of 9-2 and the xG margin was 10.77-2.49.
I have a hard time seeing how North Macedonia is able to make massive improvements from their two previous thrashings at the hands of Austria.
Betting Analysis & Pick
North Macedonia really lack the overall talent to hang with Austria, so I think the Austrians are going to cruise in this match, especially given how much they dominated North Macedonia during Euro qualifying.
Since I have Austria projected at -216 and for 1.99 goals, I am going to go for the double and take Austria -135 and their team total over 1.5 goals.
Pick: Austria -135 | Austria Team Total Over 1.5 (+105)
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