Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Chris Bassitt.
Athletics vs. Yankees Odds
| Athletics Odds | +110 |
| Yankees Odds | -125 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 |
| Time | Sunday, 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds as of Saturday and via PointsBet | |
The A’s are cruising past MLB competition while the Yankees, who were the pre-season favorites to win the pennant, are way back in their division.
In today’s premier day game, Chris Bassitt and Domingo German will battle each other and two often-powerful lineups. Both are having solid seasons, but German needs to bounce back after his most recent performances.
Given the pitching matchups and these two excellent bullpens, my best bet for today will be on the total. Let’s dive into where the value lies.
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Athletics Are Tough To Beat When Bassitt Starts
The A’s are a really impressive team.
They’re 17 games above .500, have won seven straight and nine of their last 10. The lineup is sixth in MLB in wRC+ (107) while the pitching staff is 11th in FIP (3.84). Even though the Astros are on an 8-2 run, the A’s still hold a two-game lead in the AL West.
Perhaps more impressive are the A’s road stats. The Athletics are 19-9 on the road this season while posting the second-highest road OPS (.771) and wOBA (.332) in MLB. Additionally, the pitching staff ranks top 10 in both road FIP (3.79) and road WHIP (1.26).
Their starter today – Chris Bassitt – has been a huge reason for their success. Bassitt has posted impressive numbers this season, such as a 3.43 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. However, the most impressive statistic of Bassitt’s season is that the A’s are 11-3 in his starts.
In fact, the A’s have won seven straight games that Bassitt has started in. That’s a trend that will be hard to fade.
Yankees Still Waiting To Meet Expectations
The Yankees are underperforming,
After last night’s loss, the Yankees are six games back in the AL East and five games back in the wildcard race. While they just completed a sweep of the talented and scrappy Blue Jays, the Yanks are also just 8-12 in their last 20 games.
Over the past month, the lineup ranks 21st in wRC+ (96), while the pitching staff ranks 15th in WHIP. The biggest surprise has been the bullpen, which has been uncharacteristically bad lately and has posted a 4.31 FIP and a 1.27 WHIP over the past month – two numbers that rank in the back half of the league.
Today’s starter, Domingo German, has actually been a bright spot in the Yankees pitching staff for parts of the year. In May, German posted a 2.40 ERA and a .93 WHIP in five starts for the Yankees. However, he’s also coming off a start where he allowed seven earned in just 4 1/3 innings to the Phillies, bumping up his numbers a considerable amount.
German is a very controlled pitcher. He relies mostly on his little-moving curveball, and he walks less than 5% of batters faced, a stat that ranks in the top 8% of qualified pitchers.
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Athletics-Yankees Pick
These are two teams headed in opposite directions. The A’s are cruising through MLB, while the Yankees are uncharacteristically struggling.
However, instead of just siding with the A’s, I think the better bet is on the under 9. Bassitt is a very solid pitcher with great expected stats (3.19 xERA, 3.82 xFIP), and I fully expect German to bounce back after the catastrophe that was his last start.
Additionally, the under has hit in five straight games between the Yankees and A’s, and these two are 5-1 to the under the last six times they’ve played in Oakland.
Finally, all the big money is on the Under. At the time of this writing, the under is receiving just 56% of the bets but over 90% of the handle. Plus, our model projections would place this total at 8.74, meaning there’s a little value on the under in this spot.
I’d grab under 9.5 at -120 or better.
Pick: Under 9.5 (-120 or better)
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