Lachlan Cunningham/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt Olson.
Athletics vs. Giants Odds
| Athletics Odds | -112 |
| Giants Odds | -108 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-117 / -105) |
| Time | 9:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings. | |
Two local rivals with red-hot offenses will do battle in San Francisco on Friday night in what should be a thrilling affair.
Lefty Sean Manaea gets the ball for Oakland, and he’s been stellar of late with just three earned runs in his past four outings. Johnny Cueto, meanwhile, continues to be effective in his later years, coming off a quality start against the Phillies.
With that being said, is there value here in believing in two really good offenses? Is there more than meets the eye with these pitchers? Let’s dive into the numbers.
Oakland Becoming a Team to Fear
After a momentary blip on the radar, the A’s appear to be back. This team had won nine out of 10 games before a recent slide but has rebounded nicely with a couple of wins over the Rangers.
Jed Lowrie is hitting again, Matt Olson is still red-hot, and though Mark Canha had to leave Thursday’s game, there are still a plethora of exciting outfield options.
Put simply, this is not an offense opponents want to be facing right now. Over the past two weeks, the A’s are second in wRC+ to only the Astros, posting a ridiculously low 20.1% strikeout rate and an .827 OPS. Their barrel rate sits at a gaudy 10%, which is very concerning based on how seldom this team is striking out.
Manaea, too, has been on a roll. He’s allowed just three earned runs in his past four starts, and is coming off an 11-strikeout performance against the Yankees. With all that said, though, I think there’s more to him than meets the eye.
Manaea has had the benefit of facing some weak lineups since his pretty horrible two-start run against the Red Sox and Astros in mid-May. He’s drawn the Angels three times now, the Mariners and the Diamondbacks (who, as everyone knows, can’t hit), and the Yankees, who have had big-time issues against lefties.
It’s not that Manaea shouldn’t get any credit for those starts, but they don’t look so good in the context of his season.
The lefty has once again pitched to a poor xwOBA over .300, he’s hardly getting any swings and misses out of the zone, and with a pedestrian strikeout rate and a bad hard-hit rate, is really skating by as he pitches to contact.
Statcast expects his ERA to be almost a full run higher than his 3.01, and with good reason.
Can Cueto Contain the A’s?
The Giants? Just as hot. They’ve won eight of their last nine, and even though those have come against the Diamondbacks, Phillies and Angels, they’ve still come in commanding fashion.
Sitting right below Oakland in wRC+ over the past two weeks is San Francisco, checking in at third among major-league offenses.
It’s struck out just a tad more but slugged a bit better, and hold one key advantage here. The Giants are sixth in baseball with a .758 OPS against left-handers and just destroyed one in the form of reliever Alex Claudio, who blew Thursday night’s game to this ridiculously powerful side.
We wouldn’t exactly call Cueto “ridiculously powerful” anymore, however. His fastball velocity is predictably pedestrian at age 35, and his stuff has been very hittable.
His xwOBA on contact is an alarming .406, his strikeout rate is below league average, and his expected batting average is close to .300. None of those numbers are good, especially when you’re talking about the prospects of facing a very strong lineup on the other side.
To make matters even worse, the veteran has allowed two home runs in each of his past three starts.
Athletics-Giants Pick
It seems too good to be true, but if I had to guess, this total reflects some optimism in Sean Manaea from the oddsmakers.
I don’t share that same optimism —not after Manaea shut down some pretty tame offenses in a row. The competition level will come up a few notches here, and I expect him to crack at least a little.
With a few runs coming from the Giants, it should be easy to hit this over. Cueto has been so ineffective lately, and a homer-happy team like the A’s will be his undoing.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-115)
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