Ron Jenkins/Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants starting pitcher Sammy Long, left, exits the game.
Athletics vs. Giants Odds
| Athletics Odds | -141 |
| Giants Odds | +123 |
| Over/Under | 8.5 (-117/-105) |
| Time | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Sunday morning via DraftKings. | |
Both the Oakland Athletics and San Francisco Giants are immensely talented teams who have been playing awesome, all-around baseball.
However, one thing has become abundantly clear: The Giants are on a whole different level than the rest of Major League Baseball. San Francisco came back to win its 50th game Saturday in an extra-inning, walk-off thriller.
Bottom line, manager Gabe Kapler has his team playing surreal baseball. The question is: can the Giants continue their unreal run in Sunday’s contest? Let’s dive into where the value lies in this series finale.
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Oakland Playing Well Overall Despite Recent Defeats
The A’s might have dropped the first two meetings of this series, but that shouldn’t take away from what the team has accomplished so far. Oakland is 13 games over .500, sitting two games ahead of Cleveland for the second NL wild-card spot.
Over the past few seasons, the A’s have tended to have one stretch of games where they can’t lose. This year, it felt that stretch came early, when Oakland won 13 consecutive games in April.
However, the A’s are getting hot again. In June, they’re 15-7 with a +42 run differential. During that span, the offense is fourth in wRC+ (120), while the starting rotation is fifth in FIP (3.42).
The only weak link is the bullpen. Oakland relievers have posted the highest FIP of any team this month (5.92), and the .247 BABIP allowed suggest things could get worse. After all, the bullpen did cost them the win yesterday.
Starting pitcher: Cole Irvin (LHP)
I hate to be this guy, because Irvin is having an OK season, especially in his first as a starter. However, I have a personal vendetta against him.
Irvin is a softball four-seamer who pitches to contact, but instead of keeping his exit velocity down (as many who pitch this way tend to do), he gives up a lot of hard contact. He’s basically the entire Detroit Tigers pitching staff, but worse.
Among qualified pitchers, Irvin is in the eighth percentile in whiff percentage and 29th percentile in average exit velocity. Combine those with his fairly high average launch angle (16 degrees) and you have a recipe for disaster.
However, Irvin has managed to get away with it so far. Yet, it’s worth noting these underlying statistics have led to an xERA and an xFIP of 4.70, both more than a full point higher than his current ERA.
San Francisco Exceeding Preseason Expectations
Did you know that the Giants preseason win total was 75?
We are now 76 games into the season and the Giants currently stand at 50 wins. The NL West might be the most impressive division in baseball, and San Francisco currently holds a 4.5-game lead.
Suffice it to say, the franchise’s “hot start” is officially over. The team is 9-1 in their last 10 games; 26-10 at home; 24-16 on the road; and, 20-12 against teams with a winning record. They have posted a +104 win differential so far this season.
Similar to the Athletics, the Giants aren’t slowing down. In the month of June, they’ve have posted the third highest wRC+ (125), while notching the third-lowest FIP (3.44). Overall, San Francisco is 15-6 this month with a +34 run differential.
While the team doesn’t need any more hype, what gets me excited about the Giants is the potential re-emergence of Mike Yastrzemski. He’s had a lackluster season, but posted a .892 OPS this month and has hit four home runs. If he could start playing to his full potential, the Giants could take another leap forward.
Starting pitcher: Sammy Long (LHP)
Not much to write about Long. He made his major-league debut this season and his first start in the show a week ago. Long tossed six innings, allowing two runs on four hits against the Philadelphia Phillies.
However, Long was quite successful in the minors this season before his promotion. He posted a 3.00 ERA and a 1.07 WHIP in four AA starts, and then went wild in AAA. Over 7 2/3 shutout innings with the AAA Sacramento River Cats, Long allowed just one hit and walked one, while striking out 15 batters.
Long is a fastball-curveball pitcher who mixes in a changeup. He throws the curveball at a remarkably low 75 mph, and does it with a decent amount of side-to-side movement.
Athletics-Giants Pick
The Giants have been unbelievably profitable this season. For example:
- If you had bet $100 on every San Francisco moneyline this season, you’d be up $2,101.
- If you had bet $100 on every Giants run line this season, you would be up $2,384.
- If you had bet $100 on every San Francisco home moneyline this season, you would be up $929.
- If you had bet $100 on every Giants road moneyline this season, you would be up $1,172.
Basically, the Giants are profitable in every imaginable situation. And that’s why I’m riding them in this spot.
However, I’m not just blindly betting San Francisco. There are three distinct reasons why I believe taking it on the ML is the best for this game.
First off, the Giants’ offense should have success against Irvin’s fastball. Again, I am not a fan of Irvin and believe his softball style is due for serious regression. And this contest might be perfect for that, as San Francisco ranks second overall in weighted fastball runs created (38.1) in the category.
Secondly, Oakland’s offense might struggle against Long’s curveball. The A’s are 29th in MLB when it comes to weighted fastball runs created (-13.2), and Long has thrown the curve even more than his fastball.
Finally, we’ve already tracked sharp money coming in on the Giants via the moneyline. At the time of this writing, San Francisco is receiving 60% of the tickets, but more than 80% of the handle.
Between the historical betting trends, pitcher mismatches and smart money, I believe that the value lies with the Giants.
Bet San Francisco at anything better than -150 and watch it pull off the sweep.
Pick: Giants ML (-141 — play to -150)
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