Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez (44) is mobbed by teammates after his walk-off hit on Friday.
Astros vs. Orioles Odds
| Astros Odds | -162 |
| Orioles Odds | +138 |
| Over/Under | 10.5 |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Monday morning and via DraftKings. | |
The Houston Astros enter this week as the hottest team in baseball. They have won seven straight games and are 8-2 in the last 10 games. They are 14-4 during the month of June and have taken over the best record in the American League.
Baltimore, on the other hand, has the worst record in the American League and is just 1-9 in their last 10 games. The Astros are obviously a sizeable favorite on Monday night, but is it worth laying the price, or is the best bet to look elsewhere?
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Houston Rocketing Up The Standings
Houston has used a six-man rotation at times this season, and will use right-hander Jake Odorizzi in that role in the series opener. He has made six starts this year, and has not started since June 9. He did throw four shutout innings in relief on June 15, his most recent appearance.
Odorizzi has struggled to a 5.68 ERA this season, but his 4.62 FIP and 3.86 xERA indicate it hasn’t necessarily been that bad. He throws his fastball almost 60% of the time, and luckily it has been his best pitch, allowing just a .188 batting average against. His splitter, slider and cutter have all be hit around though.
There isn’t a lot that needs to be said about Houston’s offense. The Astros are really good. They lead the league in runs per game, batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wOBA and wRC+.
They just completed a weekend where they beat up on the top pitching staff in the American League. Over the weekend they faced the White Sox, including starts again Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodón and Dallas Keuchel, and Houston outscored Chicago 27-8 in a four-game sweep at Minute Maid Park.
Mullins, Mancini Lead The Way For Baltimore
Left-hander Keegan Akin made his MLB debut last August and is set to make his fifth start of the season and 11 of his career on Monday. Akin has made eight appearances this season, four out of the bullpen, and his last four as a starter.
The first two starts of the season for Akin actually went pretty well, as he allowed just one run over 9 2/3 innings. However, his last two starts have been poor, especially his last game when he allowed eight runs against Cleveland. He really struggled with his control in his last two starts, walking three batters in each.
The Orioles’ offense has actually been a little better that expected. They rank 14th in the league in batting average, 18th in wOBA and 17th in wRC+. It obviously isn’t anywhere close to Houston, but for one of the worst teams in the league, the offense has at least been average.
That is largely thanks to the terrific seasons by Cedric Mullins and Trey Mancini. Mullins especially has been fantastic, batting .319 with a .407 wOBA and 161 wRC+. He’s batting .364 with ha 1.114 OPS over the last month.
Astros-Orioles Pick
If you think I am going to sit here and tell you to bet on the worst team in the American League against the best team in the American League, you are crazy. If you think I’m going to tell you to bet against Houston, when they’re facing a left-handed pitcher, you’re crazy.
Houston is the best in the league in virtually every offensive category this season, but the Astros are especially good against left-handing pitching. The Astros are batting .283 and have a .343 wOBA and 123 wRC+ against southpaws this year.
Like Houston, Baltimore is also much better against lefties, but Odorizzi throws with his right hand. The O’s rank just 27th in batting average, 27th in OPS and 29th in runs scored against righties.
Odorizzi certainly isn’t the most trustworthy pitcher, but he throws his fastball almost 60% of the time and the Orioles struggle against fastballs, ranking just 20th in the league.
In the Astros’ 14 wins during June, 12 of them came by at least two runs. Back Houston on the run line to stay hot and easily take care of Baltimore on Monday.
Pick: Houston Astros -1.5 (+102) (Play -110 or better)
