Carmen Mandato/Getty Images. Pictured: Houston Astros standout Alex Bregman.
Astros vs. Athletics Odds
| Astros Odds | -105 |
| Athletics Odds | -115 |
| Over/Under | 8 (-106 / -114) |
| Time | 9:40 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Tuesday morning via BetMGM. | |
The Oakland Athletics and Houston Astros will renew their rivalry once again starting Tuesday, which comes a month after two contentious meetings that saw Houston take five of a total seven games. A familiar face will oppose the Astros in the opener in Sean Manaea, whose history runs deep against Houston.
Is there value on taking the Astros in their current form at the dish or will Manaea once again navigate this Houston lineup like he’s done so many times in the past?
Let’s have a look at the numbers and see if we can answer that question.
Houston Enters Matchup in Stellar Form
You’d be hard-pressed to find a team hotter than the Astros, who have won six in a row and nine of their last 11 games Over the past week, they’ve hit a league-best .266, posting a .332 wOBA and 119 wRC+ that are both top-three marks. This contest will be a real test, considering not many of those wins came against quality pitching.
Houston’s offense can rest easy knowing it will be facing a lefty, considering the team has the third-best wRC+ against southpaws this year. Five regulars have hit better than .300 off of left-handed pitching, and Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel and Yordan Alvarez all have three or more home runs within the split. The Astros can also look back to their season-opening home series, when it lit up Manaea for five runs, though the veteran’s next outing went a bit better.
Taking the mound will be the promising, yet confusing Cristian Javier. The right-hander had two great starts against the Athletics to begin his season, allowing two runs in 8 2/3 innings during an overall fantastic first month.
However, since the calendar turned to May, Javier has allowed 11 earned runs in three starts, with eight walks being his biggest Achilles heel, though four home runs isn’t too far behind. He’s still been solid in the strikeout department, and sports a .214 expected batting average.
There’s been plenty of good to make you believe, including some solid outings against these A’s, but the last few outings have even the biggest Javier fans (myself included) worrying a bit.
Standout Pitching Has Been Oakland’s Strength
The A’s will be aiming to win a fourth consecutive series, but unlike the heater this team went on a month ago, this one has been powered by pitching. Oakland is sporting a 3.81 ERA over the past week, checking in inside the top 10 in the league over that span. The bullpen has been particularly great with a 2.66 ERA, and not much has been asked of these bats.
Even still, the A’s have a 111 wRC+, but it hasn’t been the usual suspects driving the production. Elvis Andrus has caught fire, hitting .353, and Mitch Moreland and Tony Kemp have become big run-producers. It means the ceiling is still very high for this team at the moment.
Back to pitching, let’s tough on Manaea for a second. He’s been good this season, staying steady in the strikeout and walk departments just as he’s done for years now.
The tricky part here is that he’s still allowing hard contact at a 39.4% rate, which is something that’s done him in many seasons in the past. However, none of that will matter if the Astros’ demons come back out against the left-hander. Manaea has pitched to a 3.50 ERA in 15 starts against Houston, which span 82.5 innings.
Astros-Athletics Pick
The Astros have absolutely mashed lefties this year, and have already gotten to Manaea once in this season. Though he got them back in his next start, I haven’t seen a ton from him that leads me to believe he’ll settle in against a red-hot offense. He was just roughed up by the Boston Red Sox hard in his last start, and when hitters have put the bat on the ball against him they’ve hit it hard.
That’s what this Houston team does as well as anyone, and with a future ace on the hill in Javier, I like its chances. The youngster has pitched too well over his two big-league seasons to let this form be the new normal, and I think he sees some positive regression against an Oakland lineup that’s lacking production from its big names. The value is all on Houston here.
Pick: Astros ML (-105)
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