James Williamson – AMA/Getty Images. Pictured: Harry Kane.
Arsenal vs. Spurs Odds
| Arsenal Odds | +125 |
| Spurs Odds | +230 |
| Draw | +240 |
| Over/Under | 2.5 (+100 / -125) |
| Day | Time | Sunday | 11:30 a.m. ET |
| How To Watch | NBCSN | fuboTV |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute Soccer odds here. | |
Sunday is the 204th edition of one of English football’s most storied and bitter rivalries.
Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur’s stadiums are separated by just four miles in North London. Arsenal had its run as a mainstay in the top four and Champions League, but they haven’t finished ahead of Tottenham in five seasons and counting.
Spurs had their run to the Champions League final and nearly won the Premier League in back-to-back seasons, but those years are in the past. At present, both clubs have had a disappointing start to the 2021-22 campaign coming off subpar campaigns.
Instead of competing for fourth like years past, Spurs and Arsenal found themselves both well below the top four and battled on the final Sunday in May for seventh instead.
If you look at the Premier League xG table, Arsenal and Spurs both sit deep in the red in expected goals (xG) and in the bottom five of the table.
Recent form points to Arsenal, who have won two straight games, while Spurs lost to Chelsea and Crystal Palace in consecutive 3-0 defeats. But Tottenham showed in their Carabao Cup victory over Wolves and first half against Chelsea that they can play better soccer with their best midfielders in the lineup, until they ran out of gas due to lacking match fitness.
There’s a strong case that neither team is nearly as bad as their underlying numbers and that injuries, fixtures and fitness issues are a main reason that both have had poor starts to the year.
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Gunners Showing Some Signs of Progress
It wasn’t that long ago that Arsenal lost 2-0 to Brentford, 2-0 to Chelsea and 5-0 to Manchester City in the first three matches of the Premier League season. The Gunners went into the international break with no points and no goals.
Mikel Arteta’s side came back and managed consecutive 1-0 wins over a pair of teams toward the bottom of the table in Norwich City and Burnley.
Arteta has stabilized Arsenal and their performances have improved. When teams let them have the ball and play their slow, possession based soccer, the Gunners are a pretty good team. When they’re put under pressure, have to play without the ball or defend deep, they’re not.
Arsenal still only have one convincing performance under their belt this season, though, and it came against Norwich. The Gunners were outshot at Burnley and battled to about even in xG.
Spurs Looking for Complete 90 Minutes
One major reason for Spurs’ terrible attacking numbers to begin the season were that Heung-min Son and Harry Kane’s performance at the top of Tottenham’s frontline were bad. Kane had a busy summer with England at the Euros and had his uncertain future in the news for most of August.
Kane returned late to Spurs and his performances suffered. He was poor against Wolves, Watford and Palace, against whom he attempted just two total shots and didn’t score any goals. For a striker who has averaged more than three shots per 90 minutes his whole career at Tottenham, that’s almost zero production.
The England captain did manage two shots against Chelsea and three in the Carabao Cup against Wolves, both signs that he’s improving.
Tottenham played their best two halves of the season against Chelsea and Wolves in the respective first halves now that Giovani Lo Celso and Tanguy Ndombele were able to do more pressing and progressive passing in the midfield. Both had dealt with injuries, fitness issues and quarantine rules.
Tottenham’s xG numbers as a whole — like Arsenal’s — are really bad. Both are around -0.70 xG difference per 90 minutes, but sample size is way too small to judge the two teams given the differences in lineups and opponents that they’ve played.
Spurs’ six first-half shots against an elite defense in Chelsea is a sign that for at least a half, they should be lined closer to a pick’em against the Gunners. Combine that with Kane trending upward, and the Spurs attack should be improved.
Betting Analysis & Pick
Both Arsenal and Tottenham have the lowest pressing success rates in the entire Premier League, but Spurs had their best game of the season in last week’s game against Chelsea. This was especially true in the first half when Tottenham overwhelmed the Blues in the midfield and outplayed one of the league’s best teams before Chelsea was the dominant side in the final 30 minutes.
When Spurs play both Ndombele and Lo Celso, they have the better midfield in this matchup, especially in the first hour before fitness issues become a concern.
Bookmakers aren’t really taking into account Spurs ability to keep up pressure on Arsenal early before wearing down, and thus Spurs are undervalued in the opening half of this game. The Gunners should have a nervy start if Spurs come out and apply pressure before growing into the game.
I’ll be waiting for lineups to make a play on this game and looking to play Spurs in the first half.
Pick: Spurs Draw No Bet — First Half (+125)
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