Katelyn Mulcahy/Getty Images. Pictured: Shohei Ohtani
Angels vs. Yankees Odds
| Angels Odds | +120 |
| Yankees Odds | -139 |
| Over/Under | 9.5 (-104 / -118) |
| Time | 7:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB.TV |
| Odds as of Wednesday morning and via DraftKings. | |
After exploding at the plate on Tuesday night for 11 runs in a rout of the Angels, the Yankees will hope to make scoring runs a trend beginning on Wednesday against the talented Shohei Ohtani.
With 11 hits and three home runs, is there anything left in the proverbial tank for New York against one of the most talented righties in the American League? Let’s take a look at the matchup below to uncover the answer.
_BookPromo=253
Uncovering Ohtani’s Strange Pitching Season for Angels
While Ohtani has made a huge impact at the plate this year, his pitching numbers have been a little weird. He’s pumping 95 on the gun with consistency and striking out an insane 33.1% of hitters, but he’s also walking almost 13% of hitters and continuing to give up hard-hit balls at a very high rate. He’s almost a three-true outcome pitcher at times, which makes him inefficient.
Because of those numbers, Ohtani has a 3.62 xERA, which you’d never really suspect, because he’s given up just six homers and hardly been touched up in his 11 starts. xERA doesn’t really translate to real-life runs in bigger ballparks, and it’s very possible in a park like Yankee Stadium that he could see the correction that the data predicts is coming.
The Angels’ offense has slumped to a 96 wRC+ over the past week, and now will likely not have Ohtani penciled in because he’ll be starting, so it will take a lot from Ohtani on the hill to put the Halos in a position to win. More concerning than that wRC+ is one of the underlying numbers, which is a super-low 6.3% walk rate. That puts the onus on this team to make quality contact, and a 31.3% hard-hit rate just isn’t going to cut it.
Yankees Finally Break Through vs. a Lefty
The most impressive thing about the Yankees’ offensive masterpiece on Tuesday was, by far, the fact that it came against a left-handed starter. After all, this team has really struggled against southpaws for two seasons, and had just been shut down by Eduardo Rodriguez in Boston. On top of that, they piled up the hits, with 11!
It seems as if this was a long time coming for the Yankees. Over the past week, they are making hard contact (95+ mph off the bat) at the third-best rate, and hitting .267. Walks continue to be a strength, with a BB% over 13%, and strikeouts have remained stable.
Domingo German has also been pretty consistent throughout the season. Aside from one miserable outing against the Phillies back three starts ago, the right-hander has played the part of back-end starter quite brilliantly with a 4.32 ERA.
He’s limited his walks all year and been right around league-average in the strikeout department. It’s worth noting that he faced the Angels in 2019 twice, and didn’t allow an earned run in nine innings of work, though that was without Ohtani. Then again, he probably won’t be in the lineup Wednesday.
Angels vs. Yankees Pick
Regardless of the Ohtani factor (there’s always a chance Joe Maddon decides to hit him, because when have we ever been able to predict Joe Maddon?), I still really think the scales are tipped towards the Yankees here. They have been a spectacular fastball hitting team lately judging by pitch value, and their careful approach and low strikeout rate should help them immensely against Ohtani.
Furthermore, the Yankees’ affinity for barrels and great contact lately should hit Ohtani right where it hurts, particularly at home. With an Angels offense that’s been slumping hard, I think the Yankees are the play here.
Pick: Yankees ML (-139)
_BookPromo=267