Rob Tringali/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Judge.
Angels vs. Yankees Odds
| Angels Odds | +148 |
| Yankees Odds | -177 |
| Over/Under | 10 |
| Time | Thursday, 1:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Wednesday and via DraftKings | |
We have day baseball in The Bronx between two teams with sub-.500 records in day games. The Los Angeles Angels and New York Yankees finish their four-game set ahead of 4th of July weekend.
Neither team has been inspiring in the first half of the 2021 season. How confident can we be in finding a way to bet this game knowing each team is battling to stay afloat in the American League?
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Los Angeles Angels
Griffin Canning has been league average in his third season with the Angels.
Unfortunately for the 25-year old, average has led to career-worst marks in walk and home run rates, as well as ERA, Barrel percentage and Hard Hit rate. This has led to Canning failing to pitch four innings in 25% of his starts. The Yankees may be average at home against right-handed pitching (98 wRC+), but the offense has the best walk rate in that situation but 1.5%.
The Angels are the best at making medium contact against left-handed pitchers, particularly in road games. The issue is it is paired with soft contact more than hard; the Angels have the lowest Hard Hit percentage away from home. Combine this with a low walk rate, and the Angels officially have difficulty scoring runs.
There is some good news for the Angels, it just does not help the team in the immediate future as they struggle to stay near .500.
New York Yankees
Jordan Montgomery does not offer much in the way of consistency, but the lefty is continuing a five-year trend of improvement. His home runs per nine innings rate has most notably dropped from 1.22 in his rookie year (2017) to 0.99 in 2021, and his ERA is closer to when he debuted. His fastball velocity is a career-high 92.9 and is on pace to set a career-best in WAR.
The Angels four best hitters against southpaws in away games using wRC+ are Phil Gosselin, Shohei Ohtani, Taylor Ward, and David Fletcher. To say injuries and poor hitting have plagued Los Angeles is an understatement. Two of those players were not in the Angels opening day lineup and Fletcher offers little power.
The Yankees have an opportunity to chase Canning and pick apart one of the worst road bullpens in baseball. Only the Rockies have a worse road ERA than Los Angeles’ 5.42 mark. Like the Angels offense, their bullpen leads baseball in Medium contact allowed and has the lowest hard hit percentage. That could be difficult to replicate with Aaron Judge and Gio Urshela likely to play Thursday after sitting Wednesday evening. Both are average or better against righties at home and offer more hope with their inclusion on getaway day.
Angels-Yankees Pick
The first two games of this series were decided by at least two runs. Canning does little to inspire me that he can keep the Angels close, especially if the team’s offensive spark in Ohtani is absent from the lineup after pitching 12 hours prior.
The Angels had some promise in their rotation heading into 2021, but injuries, inconsistencies, and a revolving door in the bullpen have derailed another season.
Pick: Yankees Run Line +110 (bet to -105), or bet Yankees ML if -150 or better is available
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