Adam Glanzman/Getty Images. Pictured: Xander Bogaerts.
Angels vs. Red Sox Odds
| Angels Odds | +100 |
| Red Sox Odds | -120 |
| Over/Under | N/A |
| Time | Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | MLB Network |
| Odds as of Friday and via BetMGM | |
The Los Angeles Angels are coming off a desperately needed off-day after losing seven of their last 10 games, which put them at the bottom of the American League West. The Halos’ -38 run differential is the third worst in baseball.
The Boston Red Sox, meanwhile, enter the day tied for the most wins in baseball with a 23-16 record and a +36 run differential. Boston will be feeling confident after a dominant 8-1 victory over Oakland last night.
Let’s break down this series opener and find the betting value:
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Halos Turn to Griffin Canning
Griffin Canning will look for this third straight win after a shaky start to the season. After allowing 14 runs in 15 innings during four games in April for a 8.40 ERA, Canning has allowed just one earned run in 11 innings during his two starts so far in May.
The California native and former UCLA Bruin is still only 25 years old with just 35 big-league games under his belt. Canning has a 31.5 Hard Hit% and 10.38 K/9, which are both solid, but he needs to work on his control, which is clear by his 3.46 BB/9.
I would never say anything bad about Mike Trout. He is a super human who is batting .355 and leads baseball with a 1.150 OPS, .478 wOBA and 216 wRC+. However, it is worth noting that Trout is batting just .237 over the last two weeks and has been held hitless in three straight games.
On the season, the Angels’ offense ranks fourth in baseball with a .254 average and seventh in OPS. The Halos sit eighth in wOBA and sixth in wRC+. However, similarly to Trout, things have cooled off over the past two weeks. The Angels rank just 19th in batting average and 17th in OPS in that span.
Boston’s Lineup Is Red Hot
After struggling in two and half seasons with the Phillies, they gave up on Nick Pivetta and traded him to the Red Sox.
The right-hander went 19-30 with a 5.50 ERA during his time in Philadelphia. Since joining Boston, Pivetta is 7-0 in nine starts with a 2.89 ERA. He even picked up a win by outpitching Jacob deGrom on April 28, allowing just one hit over five scoreless innings. Pivetta has struggled with walks a bit this season while also doing a good job keeping the ball in the yard, allowing just two home runs so far this season.
The Red Sox offense has been near the top of the MLB leaderboard in just about every category all season long. Boston ranks first in OPS, first in slugging, second in batting average and fourth in wRC+.
Shortstop Xander Bogaerts and designated hitter J.D. Martinez have been phenomenal this season for Boston. Bogaerts is batting .348 and leads the MLB with 49 hits, and Martinez is batting .340 with 10 home runs and leads the league with 33 RBIs. On Thursday night against Oakland, Bogaerts went 3-for-3 with a double and home run, while Martinez went 3-for-4.
Angels-Red Sox Pick
There is nothing worse than backing a team with a horrible bullpen. Even if they are able to build a lead, you never feel safe and end up nervously sweating the entire game, knowing the impending doom coming at the end of the game.
The Angels’ bullpen ranks 27th in ERA this season and 23rd in FIP. Los Angeles relievers have tallied eight saves and seven blown saves, making them impossible to trust.
While I like Canning’s improvement over the last two weeks, Pivetta has been stellar since joining the Red Sox, so Boston likely has the starting-pitching advantage as well.
Boston has crushed right-handed pitching all season, led by the red-hot Bogaerts and Martinez. The Angels’ bats, meanwhile, have cooled off dramatically over the past two weeks, and even Trout isn’t putting up the normal eye-popping numbers we’d expect as of late.
The biggest concern for me is the Angels’ fielding ability. Los Angeles has been horrible defensively all season, ranking last in the league with -30 Defensive Runs Saved and a .974 fielding percentage and an MLB-high 33 errors this season.
I like Pivetta to remain undefeated as Boston takes Game 1 of the series and would play them up to -125.
Pick: Red Sox -120 (Play to -125)
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